NBA games

WSH @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
107–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31222925107
CHI17323323105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHI
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 29 23 3 5
Corey Kispert S 39 19 12 3
Marvin Bagley III 17 16 2 0
Richaun Holmes S 31 14 15 2
Johnny Davis S 20 8 2 3
Justin Champagnie 28 8 3 3
Jared Butler 27 8 4 13
Tristan Vukcevic 9 6 3 0
Jules Bernard 13 3 2 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. S 26 2 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 27 2 6
Coby White S 36 22 4 5
Alex Caruso 33 12 6 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 34 12 2 3
Andre Drummond 19 10 12 1
Nikola Vucevic S 30 9 16 3
Jevon Carter 16 8 0 1
Torrey Craig S 19 5 2 2
Dalen Terry 11 0 1 1
Onuralp Bitim 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Corey Kispert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Corey Kispert makes two point shot (Richaun Holmes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
2 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
13%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
13%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
5 Coby White CHI
11%
6 Richaun Holmes WSH
10%
7 Alex Caruso CHI
9%
8 Corey Kispert WSH
9%
9 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
35%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 27.1 5.8 5.5
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.8 10.1 3.7
3 Coby White CHI 20.3 4.3 5.8
4 Deni Avdija WSH 20.1 9.9 4.0
5 Jordan Poole WSH 19.9 3.5 5.8
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 19.7 3.6 5.9
7 Corey Kispert WSH 14.0 3.0 2.3
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.0 9.5 1.8
9 Alex Caruso CHI 12.8 4.0 4.5
10 Richaun Holmes WSH 8.5 7.0 1.1
11 Jared Butler WSH 7.0 1.8 3.7
12 Andre Drummond CHI 6.9 7.2 0.8
13 Torrey Craig CHI 6.8 3.0 1.4
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.0 3.0 1.2
15 Onuralp Bitim CHI 5.6 1.8 1.1
16 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 5.2 3.4 1.2
17 Johnny Davis WSH 4.5 1.9 0.9
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.4 2.2 1.2
19 Jevon Carter CHI 3.9 0.9 0.9
20 Jules Bernard WSH 3.6 0.9 0.8
21 Anthony Gill WSH 3.5 1.7 0.8
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.5 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.