NBA games

BKN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
96–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2227192896
TOR2025241988

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home TOR
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trendon Watford 21 19 7 0
Dennis Schroder S 37 19 5 7
Mikal Bridges S 37 13 3 4
Jalen Wilson S 30 12 5 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 11 5 3
Nic Claxton S 35 9 16 2
Noah Clowney 21 7 6 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 8 6 3 1
Jacob Gilyard 11 0 0 1
Lonnie Walker IV 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 30 18 2 2
Javon Freeman-Liberty S 29 15 4 2
Ochai Agbaji S 31 11 5 1
Kelly Olynyk S 30 10 4 9
Bruce Brown 22 10 2 1
Gradey Dick S 33 8 3 2
Kobi Simmons 17 7 2 0
Jordan Nwora 20 5 4 2
Garrett Temple 16 2 3 4
Mouhamadou Gueye 12 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dorian Finney-Smith · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Dorian Finney-Smith makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
21%
2 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
13%
3 Dennis Schroder BKN
13%
4 Kelly Olynyk TOR
12%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
0%
10 Jalen Wilson BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
49%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 24.5 5.1 4.4
2 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 19.0 4.3 1.9
3 Dennis Schroder BKN 18.3 3.7 6.7
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 18.3 4.6 4.2
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR 15.8 6.0 5.4
6 Nic Claxton BKN 14.2 10.4 2.4
7 Gradey Dick TOR 11.7 2.9 2.0
8 Bruce Brown TOR 10.9 4.1 3.6
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.4 4.4 2.1
10 Jordan Nwora TOR 8.9 3.7 1.2
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.8 4.0 1.7
12 Jacob Gilyard BKN 7.7 2.1 4.1
13 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.2 2.5 1.0
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.7 5.6 1.8
15 Chris Boucher TOR 5.5 3.3 0.6
16 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.8 2.3 1.4
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.4 2.8 1.1
18 Keon Johnson BKN 4.4 1.0 0.8
19 Trendon Watford BKN 4.3 2.4 0.6
20 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 3.4 2.8 0.6
21 Noah Clowney BKN 3.3 1.8 0.9
22 Garrett Temple TOR 3.2 1.7 0.8
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.8 2.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.