NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
99–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET1725243399
NY36233629124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Sasser S 35 24 1 6
Evan Fournier 20 15 2 2
James Wiseman S 31 14 11 1
Malachi Flynn 30 14 4 3
Jaden Ivey S 24 9 4 3
Buddy Boeheim 18 6 3 0
Chimezie Metu 17 6 2 4
Troy Brown Jr. S 25 5 6 0
Tosan Evbuomwan S 16 3 2 0
Jared Rhoden 25 3 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 41 40 5 2
Jalen Brunson S 30 28 2 6
Bojan Bogdanovic 18 13 0 1
Miles McBride S 43 13 5 4
Josh Hart S 40 11 14 10
Precious Achiuwa 26 9 16 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 6 10 5
DaQuan Jeffries 3 3 0 0
Jericho Sims 7 1 0 0
Mamadi Diakite 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 9-foot two point shot (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
8%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
5 James Wiseman DET
8%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Chimezie Metu DET
7%
8 Josh Hart NY
7%
9 Troy Brown Jr. DET
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
41%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.7 6.0
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.8 5.2 8.0
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 19.5 4.4 4.4
4 Jaden Ivey DET 19.2 3.8 4.4
5 Jalen Duren DET 13.6 11.0 2.4
6 Miles McBride NY 12.7 2.4 2.8
7 James Wiseman DET 10.6 7.8 1.5
8 Josh Hart NY 10.3 10.6 7.1
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.3 7.0 1.9
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.0 8.1 3.0
11 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 8.5 1.9 1.6
12 Marcus Sasser DET 7.5 2.6 3.4
13 Mamadi Diakite NY 7.5 2.9 0.8
14 Alec Burks NY 6.4 1.9 1.1
15 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 5.8 3.4 1.0
16 Evan Fournier DET 5.7 1.8 1.6
17 Malachi Flynn DET 4.8 1.6 1.1
18 Buddy Boeheim DET 4.4 1.2 0.7
19 Jericho Sims NY 4.4 4.7 1.3
20 Chimezie Metu DET 4.3 3.0 1.0
21 Stanley Umude DET 4.3 1.8 0.4
22 Troy Brown Jr. DET 4.1 2.3 0.9
23 Jared Rhoden DET 4.1 2.3 0.8
24 Shake Milton NY 3.2 1.8 0.9
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.