NBA games

BOS @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS44302222118
ATL22343430120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ATL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 37 8 5
Jaylen Brown S 37 24 4 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 17 5 2
Payton Pritchard 28 15 5 6
Al Horford S 36 7 9 2
Sam Hauser S 27 6 5 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 11 6 0 3
Luke Kornet 10 4 0 0
Jaden Springer 8 2 1 0
Oshae Brissett 11 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter S 34 24 7 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 40 22 4 3
Dejounte Murray S 41 19 5 15
Vit Krejci S 33 16 6 2
Clint Capela S 29 14 12 3
Bruno Fernando 19 13 3 3
Wesley Matthews 17 6 4 0
Garrison Mathews 19 6 1 0
Dylan Windler 2 0 0 0
Trent Forrest 7 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
2 Trae Young ATL
9%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
8%
5 Derrick White BOS
8%
6 Clint Capela ATL
8%
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL
7%
8 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
7%
9 Jayson Tatum BOS
7%
10 Luke Kornet BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
28%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.5 6.0 5.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.5 5.6 3.8
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.1 5.0 8.4
4 Trae Young ATL 21.7 2.8 10.7
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.0 6.3 2.2
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.9 8.6 4.4
7 Derrick White BOS 16.4 5.7 6.3
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.2 3.2 2.0
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 15.1 4.0 4.3
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.6 3.3 5.1
11 Clint Capela ATL 12.2 10.1 1.8
12 Al Horford BOS 11.3 5.4 2.2
13 Sam Hauser BOS 10.5 3.9 1.3
14 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.7 6.7 1.2
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.6 2.0 1.1
16 Luke Kornet BOS 6.5 5.8 1.5
17 Vit Krejci ATL 6.4 2.1 2.0
18 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.7 3.3 0.9
19 Trent Forrest ATL 4.4 1.7 3.0
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.3 1.6 1.0
21 Wesley Matthews ATL 4.3 1.8 0.7
22 Dylan Windler ATL 2.9 1.3 0.9
23 JD Davison BOS 2.6 0.9 1.1
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.0 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.