NBA games

CHA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
92–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2017292692
CLE20312737115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CLE
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 37 24 8 3
Miles Bridges S 38 13 6 2
Tre Mann S 34 12 7 5
Grant Williams 27 12 2 1
Aleksej Pokusevski 19 11 5 3
Nick Richards S 23 11 3 1
Davis Bertans 17 3 0 1
Vasilije Micic S 31 2 2 4
Bryce McGowens 3 2 0 0
Nick Smith Jr. 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Georges Niang 25 17 3 2
Evan Mobley S 25 17 7 8
Jarrett Allen S 33 17 13 4
Darius Garland S 33 15 4 10
Isaac Okoro S 31 14 5 3
Sam Merrill 25 12 4 2
Craig Porter Jr. 14 9 1 4
Caris LeVert S 33 7 7 7
Damian Jones 3 4 1 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 8 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Darius Garland CLE
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
5 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
7 Nick Richards CHA
9%
8 Tre Mann CHA
8%
9 Caris LeVert CLE
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
22%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 21.6 7.3 4.0
2 Darius Garland CLE 21.3 3.4 6.5
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.0 11.1 2.6
4 Vasilije Micic CHA 17.7 3.4 5.4
5 Brandon Miller CHA 17.3 4.9 2.9
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.7 9.6 3.4
7 Caris LeVert CLE 14.5 4.8 7.7
8 Grant Williams CHA 13.7 4.9 2.9
9 Georges Niang CLE 13.2 4.0 2.2
10 Tre Mann CHA 12.9 4.7 4.5
11 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.4 3.5 1.9
12 Nick Richards CHA 10.0 9.4 1.1
13 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 9.1 3.8 1.4
14 Davis Bertans CHA 8.2 3.0 1.6
15 Sam Merrill CLE 8.0 2.6 2.5
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.5 2.1 1.7
17 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 5.1 2.9 1.3
18 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.7 4.5 1.2
19 Damian Jones CLE 4.5 3.0 0.7
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.1 1.4 1.0
21 Emoni Bates CLE 3.4 1.3 0.8
22 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.3 1.6 0.5
23 Amari Bailey CHA 2.4 1.1 0.5
24 JT Thor CHA 2.0 1.3 0.3
25 Pete Nance CLE 1.1 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.