NBA games

IND @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
145–150
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND36323146145
LAL30424434150

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home LAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 36 12 2
Myles Turner S 28 20 5 3
T.J. McConnell 18 17 3 7
Andrew Nembhard S 26 15 3 5
Doug McDermott 22 14 0 3
Aaron Nesmith S 27 13 3 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 12 6 10
Obi Toppin 19 11 3 1
Isaiah Jackson 13 5 4 1
Ben Sheppard 16 2 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 40 36 16 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 26 2 5
LeBron James S 38 26 5 10
Austin Reaves S 37 25 5 8
Taurean Prince 19 14 2 0
Rui Hachimura S 30 9 5 1
Cam Reddish 23 7 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 8 4 4 0
Max Christie 9 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Nesmith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
12%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
6 Myles Turner IND
11%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Doug McDermott IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.8 7.5 8.5
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.5 13.1 3.8
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.3 10.2 3.8
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.4 5.2 10.2
5 Austin Reaves LAL 17.9 4.9 5.8
6 Myles Turner IND 15.7 6.3 1.7
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.7 4.1 1.7
8 T.J. McConnell IND 14.1 3.5 5.0
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.6 3.7 1.6
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.5 3.0 3.4
11 Jalen Smith IND 9.0 5.5 1.3
12 Obi Toppin IND 7.6 3.7 1.2
13 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.9 4.9 0.9
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.5 2.4 1.2
15 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 6.4 2.1 1.7
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 4.7 0.7
17 Taurean Prince LAL 5.4 2.8 1.0
18 Doug McDermott IND 4.6 1.3 1.0
19 Cam Reddish LAL 4.5 2.1 0.6
20 Max Christie LAL 3.9 1.6 0.7
21 Jarace Walker IND 2.8 2.0 0.7
22 Kendall Brown IND 1.8 0.6 0.5
23 Harry Giles III LAL 1.8 0.9 0.4
24 James Johnson IND 1.7 0.8 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.7 0.3
26 Skylar Mays LAL 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.