NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
110–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS27272729110
MIN18283236114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 30 31 4 3
Klay Thompson 33 16 3 2
Andrew Wiggins S 25 15 4 0
Jonathan Kuminga S 30 14 3 2
Draymond Green S 32 12 8 3
Chris Paul 20 7 4 6
Brandin Podziemski S 19 7 2 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 28 6 5 0
Gary Payton II 24 2 8 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 23 6 8
Naz Reid S 29 20 12 0
Rudy Gobert S 37 17 12 2
Mike Conley S 30 14 1 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 11 0 2
Kyle Anderson 26 10 6 5
Jaden McDaniels S 30 8 4 1
Monte Morris 17 8 2 3
Jordan McLaughlin 12 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Stephen Curry GS
12%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Naz Reid MIN
8%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
27%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.4 6.9 5.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.5 5.7 4.1
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 20.3 5.0 2.9
4 Naz Reid MIN 18.3 6.4 2.6
5 Klay Thompson GS 16.2 3.1 2.6
6 Mike Conley MIN 14.1 3.6 4.9
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.0 12.8 1.4
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.5 4.9 1.7
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.3 5.0 1.6
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.1 7.5 1.6
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.1 3.1 2.4
12 Chris Paul GS 10.8 4.3 5.7
13 Draymond Green GS 9.8 8.2 5.6
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.6 4.0 5.2
15 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.8 5.3 3.6
16 Moses Moody GS 6.8 3.3 0.7
17 Monte Morris MIN 6.5 1.8 2.7
18 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 6.5 2.3 2.6
19 Gary Payton II GS 4.3 2.2 1.0
20 Luka Garza MIN 4.3 1.3 0.5
21 T.J. Warren MIN 4.1 1.8 0.8
22 Lester Quinones GS 3.7 2.0 0.6
23 Gui Santos GS 3.3 2.5 0.6
24 Kevon Looney GS 2.6 2.7 0.8
25 Dario Saric GS 2.5 1.4 1.2
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.0 1.1 0.4
27 Leonard Miller MIN 1.9 1.3 0.5
28 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.