NBA games

OKC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
93–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC2225172993
MIL25233436118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 29 19 9 8
Jalen Williams S 29 18 3 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 12 3 2
Aaron Wiggins 18 8 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 22 7 3 0
Chet Holmgren S 25 6 4 0
Lindy Waters III 7 6 0 0
Kenrich Williams 19 6 4 2
Isaiah Joe 8 6 1 0
Cason Wallace 24 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 30 19 4
Bobby Portis 28 15 6 2
Brook Lopez S 23 14 3 2
Damian Lillard S 33 11 6 5
Pat Connaughton 19 11 1 1
Khris Middleton S 27 11 10 10
Jae Crowder 18 10 2 2
Malik Beasley S 25 8 2 0
Danilo Gallinari 4 3 0 0
MarJon Beauchamp 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes layup (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
4%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.2 10.8 6.9
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.8 6.2 6.5
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.8 4.2 8.6
4 Jalen Williams OKC 21.8 4.6 4.1
5 Khris Middleton MIL 19.0 4.7 5.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.3 9.3 2.1
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.9 8.6 1.7
8 Josh Giddey OKC 14.5 6.0 5.0
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.3 3.2 2.0
10 Malik Beasley MIL 11.0 3.8 1.5
11 Brook Lopez MIL 10.1 4.5 1.8
12 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 2.8 1.9
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.0 2.8 1.7
14 Jae Crowder MIL 6.4 2.5 1.2
15 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.4 3.1 1.7
16 Gordon Hayward OKC 6.2 2.4 2.1
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.0 2.2 1.1
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.7 2.2 1.3
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.3 3.1 1.1
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.2 3.0 1.3
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.7 1.8 0.8
22 Mike Muscala OKC 3.6 1.7 0.8
23 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.7 1.1 0.7
24 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.6 2.9 0.7
25 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.3 1.2 0.4
26 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 1.9 0.9 0.4
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.2 0.5 0.4
28 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.2 0.9 0.6
29 Chris Livingston MIL 1.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.