NBA games

CLE @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
84–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2217182784
MIA32283031121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIA
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 21 15 4 1
Darius Garland S 22 9 3 3
Emoni Bates 11 9 0 1
Damian Jones 11 9 0 0
Jarrett Allen S 22 9 4 3
Craig Porter Jr. 27 8 4 4
Marcus Morris Sr. 21 7 2 2
Tristan Thompson 10 6 3 1
Georges Niang 24 6 4 2
Isaac Okoro S 19 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Haywood Highsmith 25 18 5 2
Jimmy Butler III S 24 15 3 6
Bam Adebayo S 28 15 16 3
Thomas Bryant 20 14 5 3
Terry Rozier S 31 14 3 5
Caleb Martin 20 11 2 2
Patty Mills S 22 10 2 3
Nikola Jovic S 18 8 0 1
Delon Wright 30 8 4 1
Jamal Cain 9 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Terry Rozier MIA
9%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
7 Caris LeVert CLE
8%
8 Georges Niang CLE
7%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.8 5.0 5.2
2 Darius Garland CLE 20.9 3.3 6.9
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.5 10.8 2.8
4 Terry Rozier MIA 18.5 4.8 4.7
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.1 10.5 3.1
6 Caris LeVert CLE 15.3 4.9 7.7
7 Evan Mobley CLE 14.6 8.9 3.2
8 Georges Niang CLE 13.0 3.8 2.1
9 Caleb Martin MIA 10.7 4.7 1.8
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.6 3.6 1.9
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.5 4.0 2.4
12 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 9.0 3.7 1.3
13 Sam Merrill CLE 8.2 2.7 2.1
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.0 3.8 1.8
15 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.3 3.7 0.7
16 Patty Mills MIA 4.9 1.7 1.4
17 Jamal Cain MIA 4.9 2.2 0.7
18 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.6 4.4 1.2
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.5 1.7 1.4
20 Delon Wright MIA 4.3 1.8 1.9
21 Cole Swider MIA 3.9 1.3 0.6
22 Haywood Highsmith MIA 3.8 1.9 1.0
23 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.8 2.1 0.7
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.6 2.1 0.4
25 Emoni Bates CLE 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.