NBA games

PHI @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
121–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI41222533121
LAC29272724107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home LAC
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 38 24 4 4
Tyrese Maxey S 44 24 1 6
Cameron Payne 24 23 5 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 25 12 2 6
Paul Reed 24 10 8 3
Buddy Hield S 23 9 4 2
KJ Martin 24 8 2 4
Mo Bamba S 22 5 7 1
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 12 3 4 3
Ricky Council IV 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell 25 20 1 1
Kawhi Leonard S 31 20 6 3
Paul George S 34 18 3 1
Ivica Zubac S 29 13 10 2
James Harden S 34 12 4 14
Mason Plumlee 12 8 5 1
Terance Mann S 23 6 1 1
Kobe Brown 5 4 1 0
Brandon Boston 12 4 2 0
Amir Coffey 24 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Buddy Hield assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
21%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
3 Paul George LAC
11%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
7 James Harden LAC
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Mo Bamba PHI
6%
10 Buddy Hield PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.9 3.6 5.6
2 Paul George LAC 23.6 5.3 4.2
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.1 5.4 3.7
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 20.8 6.2 2.9
5 James Harden LAC 18.5 5.2 9.0
6 Tobias Harris PHI 16.5 7.1 2.7
7 Norman Powell LAC 13.9 3.4 1.7
8 Terance Mann LAC 10.6 3.2 1.3
9 Buddy Hield PHI 10.5 3.0 2.2
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.2 8.4 1.6
11 Cameron Payne PHI 9.7 2.1 2.7
12 Paul Reed PHI 9.4 6.9 1.6
13 Amir Coffey LAC 7.6 2.9 1.6
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.6 5.3 1.8
15 Bones Hyland LAC 6.5 1.9 2.8
16 Mo Bamba PHI 6.2 4.3 1.2
17 Daniel Theis LAC 5.7 3.7 1.1
18 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.1 1.4 1.9
19 KJ Martin PHI 4.6 2.7 0.9
20 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.5 1.4 0.8
21 Brandon Boston LAC 4.3 2.1 0.6
22 Xavier Moon LAC 4.3 1.8 1.2
23 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.7 4.1 1.0
24 Kobe Brown LAC 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.