NBA games

NO @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
114–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO29282631114
DET10312535101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DET
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 36 36 7 6
CJ McCollum S 37 23 2 7
Naji Marshall 24 14 8 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 20 13 6 0
Larry Nance Jr. 27 9 3 2
Trey Murphy III S 32 8 8 2
Herbert Jones S 35 7 1 2
Jose Alvarado 21 4 5 3
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 1 0 0 0
Jordan Hawkins 6 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chimezie Metu S 39 17 8 3
Malachi Flynn 25 17 4 4
Jaden Ivey S 29 16 2 4
James Wiseman S 27 15 11 0
Buddy Boeheim 22 13 3 3
Tosan Evbuomwan 29 7 7 1
Troy Brown Jr. S 20 6 6 2
Jared Rhoden 12 5 3 0
Marcus Sasser S 27 3 1 3
Evan Fournier 10 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:31 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes 3-foot two point shot (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Zion Williamson NO
10%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
4 James Wiseman DET
9%
5 Jalen Duren DET
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
7 CJ McCollum NO
7%
8 Herbert Jones NO
7%
9 Troy Brown Jr. DET
6%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
35%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 23.9 7.9 5.3
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.7 5.1 8.2
3 Jaden Ivey DET 19.6 3.8 4.5
4 CJ McCollum NO 19.2 4.0 4.2
5 Trey Murphy III NO 17.6 5.2 3.0
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.8 10.9 2.2
7 Herbert Jones NO 10.6 3.6 2.6
8 James Wiseman DET 9.6 7.5 1.6
9 Naji Marshall NO 8.4 3.9 1.8
10 Jonas Valanciunas NO 7.6 7.0 1.8
11 Jose Alvarado NO 7.4 2.4 2.5
12 Marcus Sasser DET 7.2 2.5 3.3
13 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.9 4.7 2.0
14 Evan Fournier DET 6.0 1.9 1.8
15 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 5.8 2.7 0.9
16 Stanley Umude DET 4.8 2.1 0.7
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.6 1.7 0.8
18 Matt Ryan NO 4.5 1.5 0.8
19 Troy Brown Jr. DET 4.3 2.1 1.0
20 Jared Rhoden DET 4.2 2.0 0.9
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.9 1.8 1.0
22 Buddy Boeheim DET 3.5 1.1 0.6
23 Malachi Flynn DET 3.5 1.1 1.0
24 Chimezie Metu DET 3.2 2.7 0.9
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.5 2.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.