NBA games

DEN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
114–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN26312829114
POR22253628111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home POR
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reggie Jackson S 29 23 0 5
Aaron Gordon S 37 22 12 5
Christian Braun 36 17 8 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 13 3 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 12 9 3
Collin Gillespie 19 11 3 1
DeAndre Jordan S 20 11 8 3
Peyton Watson 15 3 5 1
Justin Holiday 14 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duop Reath S 26 24 8 2
Scoot Henderson S 28 22 4 6
Toumani Camara S 39 16 7 6
Jabari Walker 26 15 9 0
Dalano Banton 33 14 3 1
Kris Murray S 39 11 7 1
Moses Brown 11 4 3 0
Rayan Rupert S 16 3 1 5
Ashton Hagans 21 2 3 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Kris Murray makes driving layup (Rayan Rupert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scoot Henderson POR
18%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
16%
3 Kris Murray POR
14%
4 Toumani Camara POR
13%
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
13%
6 Duop Reath POR
12%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
8 DeAndre Jordan DEN
0%
9 Reggie Jackson DEN
0%
10 Justin Holiday DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
29%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.8 6.2 2.1
2 Dalano Banton POR 19.2 4.7 3.8
3 Scoot Henderson POR 14.8 3.3 5.7
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.1 6.1 4.2
5 Kris Murray POR 10.8 4.7 2.2
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.5 3.1 2.5
7 Jabari Walker POR 10.3 6.5 1.6
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.8 3.7 1.6
9 Toumani Camara POR 9.3 4.6 1.8
10 Duop Reath POR 7.7 2.4 1.2
11 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.4 3.0 1.8
12 Christian Braun DEN 7.1 3.4 1.5
13 Peyton Watson DEN 6.6 3.6 1.1
14 Reggie Jackson DEN 5.9 1.5 2.1
15 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.8 1.7
16 Rayan Rupert POR 4.5 2.1 1.1
17 Ashton Hagans POR 4.3 2.1 2.4
18 Moses Brown POR 3.5 3.2 0.6
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.4 3.3 0.6
20 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.3 0.8 0.7
21 Jay Huff DEN 1.9 0.8 0.4
22 Julian Strawther DEN 1.8 0.7 0.6
23 Braxton Key DEN 1.6 0.8 0.4
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.6 0.7 0.4
25 Ibou Badji POR 1.4 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.