NBA games

PHX @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
131–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX26393828131
SA17302435106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 31 32 7 9
Kevin Durant S 31 25 4 4
Bradley Beal S 28 13 1 12
Bol Bol 19 13 4 1
Eric Gordon 23 12 0 1
Drew Eubanks 18 10 3 1
Grayson Allen S 26 8 2 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 22 6 10 3
Royce O'Neale 16 4 4 0
Thaddeus Young 6 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 24 14 4 1
Victor Wembanyama S 21 13 5 4
Blake Wesley 19 12 1 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 8 11 3 0
Zach Collins 19 11 3 1
Tre Jones S 21 10 1 5
Jeremy Sochan S 21 7 3 2
Malaki Branham 22 7 0 3
Devonte' Graham 9 6 2 2
Cedi Osman 19 5 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Grayson Allen PHX
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
9 Tre Jones SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
69%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
12%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.2 6.7 3.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.8 5.4 6.4
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.5 10.3 5.3
4 Bradley Beal PHX 22.5 4.6 6.7
5 Devin Vassell SA 21.8 4.5 5.7
6 Grayson Allen PHX 16.6 3.6 3.5
7 Keldon Johnson SA 15.5 5.5 2.2
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.8 7.5 3.9
9 Tre Jones SA 11.7 3.9 7.0
10 Malaki Branham SA 11.3 2.4 2.5
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.1 11.7 3.9
12 Eric Gordon PHX 9.8 2.2 2.1
13 Zach Collins SA 9.7 5.0 2.0
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.1 4.3 2.9
15 Julian Champagnie SA 6.9 2.6 1.5
16 Blake Wesley SA 5.5 2.2 2.4
17 Bol Bol PHX 5.3 3.4 0.6
18 Thaddeus Young PHX 5.2 3.7 1.3
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.2 4.6 0.6
20 Cedi Osman SA 5.2 2.2 1.3
21 Dominick Barlow SA 4.8 3.5 1.1
22 Josh Okogie PHX 3.5 1.6 0.7
23 Nassir Little PHX 2.9 1.3 0.6
24 Devonte' Graham SA 2.9 1.0 0.5
25 David Roddy PHX 2.5 1.2 0.5
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 1.9 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.