NBA games

UTAH @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
119–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH21343628119
HOU47383725147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home HOU
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 20 25 6 1
Collin Sexton S 36 20 2 8
Brice Sensabaugh 27 16 4 4
Keyonte George S 31 15 4 5
Kira Lewis Jr. 25 12 5 4
Walker Kessler 28 12 9 1
Taylor Hendricks S 27 9 6 0
Johnny Juzang S 21 8 0 1
Kris Dunn 6 2 1 0
Micah Potter 18 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 33 41 4 4
Fred VanVleet S 28 34 3 7
Jeff Green 25 21 4 1
Dillon Brooks S 26 12 4 4
Jae'Sean Tate 19 7 3 1
Aaron Holiday 20 7 1 3
Jock Landale 18 6 2 3
Reggie Bullock Jr. 21 6 7 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 9 5 2 2
Nate Williams 9 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"John Collins makes 6-foot two point shot (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
6 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
8%
10 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 25.0 5.7 4.3
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.4 3.6 5.9
3 Keyonte George UTAH 20.4 3.9 5.0
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.4 4.0 9.7
5 John Collins UTAH 16.2 8.7 1.4
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.1 6.7 1.9
7 Amen Thompson HOU 13.2 6.9 2.3
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.8 3.0 2.1
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.5 6.4 1.0
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.8 4.3 2.3
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.0 8.8 1.2
12 Jock Landale HOU 7.8 4.5 1.8
13 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.4 2.7 3.1
14 Jeff Green HOU 6.0 2.2 1.1
15 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 5.4 2.2 1.8
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 5.3 1.7 0.7
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.3 1.6
18 Micah Potter UTAH 4.2 2.1 0.5
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.9 2.4 1.1
20 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.5 2.2 0.6
21 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.3 1.6 0.8
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.5 1.8 0.6
23 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 2.4 1.3 0.7
24 Nate Williams HOU 2.3 1.0 0.6
25 Jason Preston UTAH 2.1 1.6 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.