NBA games

BOS @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
124–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS31352929124
CHI31293221113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHI
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 26 2 6
Al Horford S 31 23 8 1
Sam Hauser S 32 23 5 1
Derrick White S 38 17 3 6
Payton Pritchard 34 15 3 8
Luke Kornet S 31 8 13 4
Oshae Brissett 17 7 4 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 9 3 1 0
Xavier Tillman 11 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 42 28 6 9
Alex Caruso S 28 14 3 3
Nikola Vucevic S 32 14 2 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 40 14 2 4
Dalen Terry 20 12 3 1
Torrey Craig 19 11 2 3
Coby White S 36 11 5 10
Andre Drummond 16 7 6 0
Onuralp Bitim 7 2 0 1
Terry Taylor 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
13%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Alex Caruso CHI
10%
5 Derrick White BOS
10%
6 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
7 Xavier Tillman BOS
9%
8 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
9 Torrey Craig CHI
8%
10 Al Horford BOS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
22%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.0 6.7 5.7
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 26.6 5.1 5.0
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.4 10.5 3.2
4 Coby White CHI 18.9 4.3 5.3
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 18.8 3.6 5.8
6 Derrick White BOS 15.9 6.0 6.8
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.1 3.5 4.6
8 Alex Caruso CHI 11.2 3.9 4.4
9 Al Horford BOS 10.6 5.2 2.1
10 Sam Hauser BOS 9.6 3.8 1.3
11 Torrey Craig CHI 6.6 3.3 1.5
12 Andre Drummond CHI 6.4 7.0 0.7
13 Luke Kornet BOS 6.1 4.9 1.4
14 Onuralp Bitim CHI 5.4 2.0 1.0
15 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.9 3.5 1.0
16 Neemias Queta BOS 4.6 3.8 0.8
17 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.5 1.8 1.1
18 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.3 3.0 0.9
19 Dalen Terry CHI 3.8 2.1 1.2
20 Jevon Carter CHI 3.8 1.0 0.8
21 JD Davison BOS 3.2 1.4 1.2
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 2.5 0.7
23 Jaden Springer BOS 2.7 1.7 0.7
24 Terry Taylor CHI 1.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.