NBA games

TOR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
109–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25233328109
WSH23282635112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home WSH
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 31 4 2
Gradey Dick S 34 17 2 2
Kelly Olynyk S 32 14 6 10
Ochai Agbaji S 32 12 9 2
Bruce Brown 33 11 6 3
Jahmi'us Ramsey S 18 8 4 1
Jordan Nwora 16 7 2 1
Javon Freeman-Liberty 23 4 4 4
Garrett Temple 11 3 5 2
Mouhamadou Gueye 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 36 22 13 5
Jordan Poole S 38 18 4 12
Corey Kispert S 33 18 1 2
Kyle Kuzma S 34 16 9 5
Richaun Holmes S 28 15 14 0
Marvin Bagley III 16 10 8 0
Jared Butler 20 7 2 2
Johnny Davis 17 4 1 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 11 2 1 0
Justin Champagnie 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Richaun Holmes · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Richaun Holmes makes 3-foot dunk (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
3 Marvin Bagley III WSH
9%
4 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
6 Bruce Brown TOR
8%
7 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR
8%
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 26.0 6.7 5.5
2 Jordan Poole WSH 20.3 3.6 4.9
3 Deni Avdija WSH 18.2 9.2 3.8
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 16.7 4.2 1.9
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR 15.1 5.9 4.8
6 Corey Kispert WSH 13.4 3.3 2.3
7 Marvin Bagley III WSH 11.9 8.5 1.5
8 Bruce Brown TOR 11.3 4.1 3.5
9 Gradey Dick TOR 11.2 3.1 1.8
10 Jordan Nwora TOR 9.3 4.0 1.1
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.1 4.2 1.7
12 Richaun Holmes WSH 7.4 6.2 1.1
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 7.1 3.6 1.3
14 Jared Butler WSH 7.1 2.0 3.7
15 Jahmi'us Ramsey TOR 6.5 2.8 1.3
16 Chris Boucher TOR 5.8 3.4 0.6
17 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 5.4 3.6 1.2
18 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.7 2.3 1.0
19 Johnny Davis WSH 4.6 2.1 1.0
20 Anthony Gill WSH 4.6 2.2 1.1
21 Jules Bernard WSH 3.9 1.0 0.9
22 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 3.6 3.3 0.7
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.6 2.4 0.9
24 Garrett Temple TOR 3.3 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.