NBA games

CHA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
91–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2820261791
ATL30363333132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ATL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 27 5 0
Brandon Miller S 34 13 2 1
Nick Richards S 31 12 16 1
Aleksej Pokusevski 24 9 5 4
Tre Mann S 29 9 3 9
Vasilije Micic S 30 8 3 6
Grant Williams 25 7 4 4
Davis Bertans 24 6 1 0
Amari Bailey 3 0 0 0
Nick Smith Jr. 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 31 28 7 12
Bruno Fernando 26 25 6 1
Garrison Mathews 27 20 3 2
Clint Capela S 22 12 10 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 26 12 3 6
De'Andre Hunter S 28 11 1 3
Vit Krejci S 31 9 4 4
Wesley Matthews 13 6 4 0
Dylan Windler 19 5 4 2
Trent Forrest 17 4 1 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
14%
2 Trae Young ATL
10%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
6 Vasilije Micic CHA
8%
7 Clint Capela ATL
8%
8 Nick Richards CHA
8%
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL
7%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
46%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
14%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.9 4.9 8.9
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.9 7.7 4.2
3 Trae Young ATL 21.6 2.7 11.3
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.1 8.9 4.8
5 Brandon Miller CHA 17.9 5.4 2.9
6 Vasilije Micic CHA 17.9 3.1 5.6
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.5 3.3 2.0
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 15.5 4.0 4.4
9 Grant Williams CHA 14.4 5.0 2.8
10 Clint Capela ATL 12.6 11.0 2.0
11 Tre Mann CHA 12.5 4.3 4.1
12 Nick Richards CHA 10.0 8.5 1.0
13 Davis Bertans CHA 8.4 2.8 1.4
14 Vit Krejci ATL 6.1 1.9 1.8
15 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.1 6.9 1.2
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.5 1.9 1.0
17 Wesley Matthews ATL 4.4 1.8 0.8
18 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.9 0.9 1.1
19 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 1.9 2.3
20 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 3.6 2.2 0.9
21 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.4 1.6 0.6
22 JT Thor CHA 2.2 1.4 0.4
23 Amari Bailey CHA 1.5 0.5 0.4
24 Dylan Windler ATL 1.5 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.