NBA games

SAC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
109–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC27272728109
ORL26302526107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home ORL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 36 31 8 2
Keegan Murray S 38 22 7 2
Domantas Sabonis S 40 21 14 8
Keon Ellis S 37 19 5 6
Harrison Barnes S 37 9 4 0
Chris Duarte 10 5 0 0
Davion Mitchell 12 2 2 3
Alex Len 9 0 1 0
Malik Monk 22 0 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Isaac 23 25 7 0
Paolo Banchero S 38 22 7 5
Franz Wagner S 35 18 3 4
Cole Anthony 31 16 7 6
Jalen Suggs S 36 9 3 4
Caleb Houstan S 11 6 2 0
Markelle Fultz 19 4 1 2
Moritz Wagner 13 4 5 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 23 3 11 1
Joe Ingles 12 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Caleb Houstan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Caleb Houstan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
20%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
40%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.3 4.9 6.2
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.2 6.1 6.4
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.7 13.6 8.0
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.3 4.0 5.6
5 Franz Wagner ORL 16.6 4.9 3.0
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.4 3.3 3.1
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.3 2.9 1.4
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.2 7.3 2.3
9 Keegan Murray SAC 11.7 5.8 1.6
10 Cole Anthony ORL 9.8 3.7 1.8
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.4 3.2 1.3
12 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.3 4.3 0.7
13 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.5 2.8 1.7
14 Keon Ellis SAC 6.3 2.9 1.6
15 Chris Duarte SAC 5.7 2.7 0.9
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.3 1.4 1.3
17 Joe Ingles ORL 4.9 1.6 2.5
18 Anthony Black ORL 4.3 1.8 0.8
19 JaVale McGee SAC 3.2 2.4 0.4
20 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.4 0.7
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.0 2.3 0.9
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.9 1.1 0.5
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.5 1.0 0.5
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.5 1.2 0.5
25 Colby Jones SAC 2.0 1.4 0.8
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.0 1.1 0.5
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.9 1.5 0.5
28 Jett Howard ORL 1.9 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.