NBA games

BKN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
93–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN3027201693
NY28282425105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home NY
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 36 19 5 6
Mikal Bridges S 37 18 4 5
Cameron Johnson S 32 13 2 2
Lonnie Walker IV 12 9 2 1
Dennis Schroder S 34 9 7 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 14 8 0 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 10 5 4 2
Nic Claxton S 31 5 9 2
Trendon Watford 2 3 2 1
Jalen Wilson 7 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 41 31 6 5
Miles McBride S 48 26 2 3
Jalen Brunson S 33 17 4 8
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 17 9 2
Josh Hart S 44 6 13 5
Alec Burks 15 5 2 1
Bojan Bogdanovic 7 3 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 7 0 3 1
Jericho Sims 18 0 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY
10%
5 Dennis Schroder BKN
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
7%
9 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
11%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.3 3.6 6.3
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.0 4.8 3.9
3 Dennis Schroder BKN 17.5 3.1 6.3
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.0 4.5 3.8
5 Mikal Bridges BKN 16.4 4.3 3.8
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.5 3.8 2.1
7 Nic Claxton BKN 14.4 9.0 2.2
8 Miles McBride NY 11.8 2.5 2.3
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.4 7.6 1.9
10 Josh Hart NY 10.0 10.6 5.6
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.8 4.2 2.1
12 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.3 8.1 2.7
13 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 8.2 2.3 1.5
14 Mamadi Diakite NY 7.2 2.9 0.7
15 Alec Burks NY 6.3 2.0 0.9
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.2 2.0 2.5
17 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 6.2 2.2 0.7
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.5 5.5 1.6
19 Jericho Sims NY 4.9 4.8 1.2
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.4 2.8 0.9
21 Trendon Watford BKN 3.8 2.3 0.5
22 Noah Clowney BKN 3.5 1.9 0.8
23 Shake Milton NY 2.9 1.8 0.8
24 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 1.8 1.0 0.5
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.