NBA games

LAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
125–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC42283124125
POR27262737117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home POR
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 28 31 4 3
Kawhi Leonard S 29 22 6 3
Terance Mann S 36 20 1 4
James Harden S 36 15 5 10
Brandon Boston 19 9 4 1
Amir Coffey 27 8 1 3
Daniel Theis 21 6 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 18 6 8 0
Mason Plumlee 9 5 3 0
P.J. Tucker 8 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson S 35 24 4 10
Kris Murray S 36 21 7 2
Dalano Banton 24 17 4 2
Jabari Walker 28 14 8 3
Duop Reath S 27 13 3 2
Toumani Camara S 32 11 7 1
Moses Brown 14 9 6 2
Rayan Rupert 23 5 2 1
Anfernee Simons S 22 3 0 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Terance Mann makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Paul George LAC
11%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
7 Kris Murray POR
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
9%
9 Toumani Camara POR
9%
10 Amir Coffey LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 24.5 4.9 4.3
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.8 5.6 3.7
3 Anfernee Simons POR 23.1 4.3 6.6
4 James Harden LAC 20.6 4.9 9.6
5 Dalano Banton POR 19.1 4.9 4.1
6 Scoot Henderson POR 14.0 3.5 5.8
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.3 7.4 1.8
8 Kris Murray POR 10.2 4.7 2.2
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.8 3.6 1.6
10 Terance Mann LAC 9.5 3.0 0.9
11 Jabari Walker POR 9.5 6.2 1.5
12 Duop Reath POR 8.6 2.5 1.1
13 Toumani Camara POR 8.2 4.6 1.8
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.5 3.1 2.0
15 Amir Coffey LAC 7.1 3.0 1.5
16 Bones Hyland LAC 6.8 1.7 3.2
17 Daniel Theis LAC 5.5 4.1 1.2
18 Xavier Moon LAC 4.8 1.8 1.7
19 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 2.0 1.2
20 Brandon Boston LAC 4.0 1.7 0.6
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.9 2.7 1.0
22 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.8 3.7 1.0
23 Moses Brown POR 2.9 3.6 0.6
24 Ibou Badji POR 1.5 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.