NBA games

IND @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
123–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND38283621123
GS38292123111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home GS
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 26 2 11
Pascal Siakam S 33 25 16 6
Andrew Nembhard S 33 17 5 5
Myles Turner S 27 14 10 0
Jalen Smith 21 11 7 1
T.J. McConnell 17 11 2 6
Aaron Nesmith S 36 8 3 2
Obi Toppin 15 8 3 0
Ben Sheppard 14 3 1 1
Doug McDermott 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 25 11 5
Klay Thompson 28 17 4 2
Brandin Podziemski S 27 13 10 2
Chris Paul 25 12 6 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 30 11 8 2
Draymond Green S 33 11 8 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis 26 9 10 2
Andrew Wiggins S 22 8 5 1
Moses Moody 6 4 1 0
Gary Payton II 8 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
23%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
10%
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
8%
7 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
10%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.5 4.8 2.8
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.2 8.8 3.5
3 Stephen Curry GS 21.0 4.8 4.2
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.1 5.3 9.3
5 Klay Thompson GS 16.5 3.2 2.6
6 Myles Turner IND 15.8 6.1 1.7
7 T.J. McConnell IND 13.4 3.7 4.4
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.9 4.9 1.9
9 Chris Paul GS 11.6 4.3 5.9
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.5 3.6 1.6
11 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.0 7.0 1.6
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.9 2.7 3.2
13 Draymond Green GS 9.5 8.6 5.7
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.5 4.7 3.7
15 Jalen Smith IND 8.1 5.1 1.0
16 Moses Moody GS 7.6 3.7 0.9
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.5 5.3 1.1
18 Obi Toppin IND 7.2 3.8 1.2
19 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 2.3 1.1
20 Doug McDermott IND 4.8 1.4 1.0
21 Lester Quinones GS 4.5 2.2 0.7
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.4 2.3 1.1
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.6 2.5 0.9
24 Kevon Looney GS 3.2 3.0 0.9
25 Dario Saric GS 3.1 1.7 1.3
26 Kendall Brown IND 2.5 1.1 0.7
27 Jerome Robinson GS 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.