NBA games

MEM @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
99–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM1825282899
SA3014242997

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SA
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 36 28 7 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 23 18 3 2
Jake LaRavia 28 15 5 1
Santi Aldama S 34 15 13 3
GG Jackson S 37 14 8 3
John Konchar S 33 6 5 2
Jordan Goodwin S 25 2 5 5
DeJon Jarreau 12 1 2 0
Maozinha Pereira 13 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 31 16 5
Devin Vassell S 38 27 4 4
Tre Jones S 32 16 7 5
Keldon Johnson 29 8 8 1
Jeremy Sochan S 31 6 10 4
Malaki Branham 18 4 3 2
Zach Collins 15 4 4 2
Julian Champagnie S 17 1 1 1
Blake Wesley 10 0 1 0
Cedi Osman 17 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
4 Devin Vassell SA
10%
5 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
6 GG Jackson MEM
9%
7 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
8 Tre Jones SA
7%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
23%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.0 12.8 5.0
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.9 6.1 3.6
3 Devin Vassell SA 21.6 4.6 5.7
4 GG Jackson MEM 18.4 4.4 2.2
5 Keldon Johnson SA 17.5 5.3 2.5
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 16.5 7.9 3.7
7 Santi Aldama MEM 15.3 6.2 2.9
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 14.0 5.8 5.9
9 Jake LaRavia MEM 12.7 5.4 2.1
10 Tre Jones SA 11.5 3.7 7.1
11 Malaki Branham SA 11.2 2.4 2.5
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.0 3.2 4.8
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.0 3.5 1.8
14 Lamar Stevens MEM 9.8 4.0 1.0
15 Zach Collins SA 9.0 4.8 1.9
16 John Konchar MEM 7.9 5.9 2.9
17 Jordan Goodwin MEM 7.0 3.7 3.1
18 Julian Champagnie SA 6.9 2.7 1.5
19 DeJon Jarreau MEM 6.4 5.2 3.1
20 Dominick Barlow SA 5.3 3.8 1.3
21 Cedi Osman SA 4.8 2.0 1.4
22 Blake Wesley SA 4.7 2.1 2.3
23 Matt Hurt MEM 3.3 1.5 0.5
24 Wenyen Gabriel MEM 3.2 3.2 0.5
25 Devonte' Graham SA 2.6 1.1 0.5
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 1.7 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.