NBA games

CLE @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
91–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2029172591
MIN25212632104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIN
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 35 19 2 4
Caris LeVert S 38 16 5 6
Jarrett Allen S 33 15 13 5
Marcus Morris Sr. 26 11 7 1
Georges Niang S 34 10 3 0
Sam Merrill 24 10 3 1
Tristan Thompson 15 5 7 1
Isaac Okoro S 36 5 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mike Conley S 32 21 2 6
Naz Reid S 26 18 3 3
Anthony Edwards S 35 16 13 5
Jaden McDaniels S 32 15 4 0
Jordan McLaughlin 19 12 2 4
Kyle Anderson 27 10 6 5
Rudy Gobert S 37 9 15 1
Monte Morris 18 3 0 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 14 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
4 Caris LeVert CLE
8%
5 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Kyle Anderson MIN
7%
10 Naz Reid MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
17%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.4 6.3 5.2
2 Darius Garland CLE 21.1 3.5 7.0
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.5 11.4 2.5
4 Naz Reid MIN 17.0 6.5 2.4
5 Caris LeVert CLE 15.2 5.2 8.3
6 Mike Conley MIN 12.8 3.5 4.6
7 Georges Niang CLE 11.8 3.6 1.9
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.6 5.0 1.6
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.1 3.2 2.4
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.0 4.0 1.8
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.7 13.1 1.5
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.3 4.3 4.5
13 Sam Merrill CLE 8.1 2.6 2.0
14 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 7.8 3.3 1.1
15 Ty Jerome CLE 6.2 2.1 3.3
16 Monte Morris MIN 6.1 1.7 2.6
17 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 5.3 2.2 2.0
18 Luka Garza MIN 4.9 1.7 0.6
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.8 4.2 1.3
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.7 1.8 1.3
21 T.J. Warren MIN 4.7 2.1 0.9
22 Damian Jones CLE 2.4 2.3 0.4
23 Emoni Bates CLE 1.9 0.8 0.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 1.1 0.3
25 Leonard Miller MIN 1.7 1.3 0.4
26 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.