NBA games

NO @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
111–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO21253035111
MIA2022242288

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MIA
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 35 30 5 7
Jose Alvarado 31 17 7 6
Trey Murphy III S 30 14 8 3
Naji Marshall 23 13 7 1
Herbert Jones S 39 10 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 22 8 10 0
Larry Nance Jr. 23 6 9 1
Zion Williamson S 25 4 5 4
Matt Ryan 3 3 0 1
Jordan Hawkins 3 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 36 17 4 5
Cole Swider 19 14 2 0
Terry Rozier S 31 13 4 2
Bam Adebayo S 30 12 10 1
Nikola Jovic S 19 10 1 1
Thomas Bryant 11 8 3 0
Delon Wright 22 5 1 3
Patty Mills S 12 4 1 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 14 3 0 3
Jamal Cain 4 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 9:58 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 11-foot jumper (Terry Rozier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
2 Zion Williamson NO
15%
3 Terry Rozier MIA
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Thomas Bryant MIA
9%
6 CJ McCollum NO
8%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Patty Mills MIA
7%
10 Jonas Valanciunas NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
28%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.0 7.7 5.1
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.4 5.0 5.7
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.9 10.3 3.4
4 Terry Rozier MIA 18.7 4.7 5.4
5 Trey Murphy III NO 16.8 4.7 2.9
6 CJ McCollum NO 16.0 4.0 3.6
7 Caleb Martin MIA 11.8 4.8 2.0
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.4 4.4 2.1
9 Herbert Jones NO 10.7 3.5 2.6
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.6 3.9 1.7
11 Naji Marshall NO 7.2 4.0 2.1
12 Jonas Valanciunas NO 6.5 6.3 1.7
13 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.4 4.5 2.0
14 Jose Alvarado NO 6.3 2.1 1.9
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.9 1.8 0.8
16 Matt Ryan NO 4.6 1.5 0.7
17 Patty Mills MIA 4.6 1.6 1.3
18 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.2 3.3 0.6
19 Delon Wright MIA 3.8 1.7 1.6
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.7 1.8 1.0
21 Haywood Highsmith MIA 3.7 1.7 0.9
22 Jamal Cain MIA 3.6 1.7 0.4
23 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.6 1.8 0.7
24 Cole Swider MIA 1.8 0.4 0.5
25 Cody Zeller NO 1.3 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.