NBA games

OKC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
123–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC28352634123
TOR35212225103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home TOR
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 23 7 8
Jalen Williams S 27 20 3 3
Chet Holmgren S 27 18 10 1
Kenrich Williams 23 12 5 2
Cason Wallace 24 12 4 1
Luguentz Dort S 23 10 3 2
Josh Giddey S 22 10 2 5
Isaiah Joe 17 8 1 2
Gordon Hayward 24 5 6 1
Aaron Wiggins 12 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 33 21 5 1
Kelly Olynyk S 27 16 6 5
Ochai Agbaji S 32 12 7 6
Jordan Nwora 21 12 4 2
Bruce Brown S 28 10 3 5
Javon Freeman-Liberty S 29 10 4 3
Garrett Temple 18 8 2 2
Jahmi'us Ramsey 19 7 0 2
Jontay Porter 21 7 3 8
Mouhamadou Gueye 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Olynyk · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kelly Olynyk makes layup (Ochai Agbaji assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
5 Bruce Brown TOR
10%
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
9%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
9 Kelly Olynyk TOR
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
84%
Jumper
6%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.3 6.4 5.9
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.5 5.0 4.3
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.6 9.3 2.8
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 16.6 4.2 1.9
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR 14.8 6.0 4.6
6 Josh Giddey OKC 13.7 6.2 4.6
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.8 3.4 1.8
8 Bruce Brown TOR 10.9 3.9 3.4
9 Gradey Dick TOR 10.5 2.8 1.9
10 Jordan Nwora TOR 8.3 3.5 1.0
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.1 3.6 1.4
12 Cason Wallace OKC 6.9 3.0 2.0
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.5 2.4 1.1
14 Gordon Hayward OKC 6.3 2.2 2.2
15 Jahmi'us Ramsey TOR 6.3 3.3 1.2
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.0 2.6 1.2
17 Jontay Porter TOR 5.2 3.0 2.1
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.0 3.5 1.1
19 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.1 2.2 1.0
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.9 2.0 0.9
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.6 2.3 1.0
22 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 3.6 3.1 0.7
23 Mike Muscala OKC 2.8 1.3 0.6
24 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.7 3.0 0.7
25 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.6 2.5 0.9
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.