NBA games

BOS @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
129–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS32373525129
DET34193019102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DET
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 33 33 4 0
Payton Pritchard S 38 20 2 9
Derrick White S 36 19 8 11
Kristaps Porzingis S 26 19 4 1
Sam Hauser 24 14 4 1
Oshae Brissett 19 6 2 1
Neemias Queta 3 5 2 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 16 3 2 1
Luke Kornet 17 3 3 4
JD Davison 3 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Wiseman S 37 24 9 4
Jaden Ivey S 27 16 4 0
Cade Cunningham S 29 15 6 6
Tosan Evbuomwan S 31 14 8 1
Jared Rhoden 17 9 5 0
Troy Brown Jr. S 21 8 3 2
Marcus Sasser 28 8 2 7
Evan Fournier 28 6 1 3
Chimezie Metu 19 2 4 2
Buddy Boeheim 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Wiseman · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"James Wiseman makes 2-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
17%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
13%
4 Jalen Duren DET
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
6 Tosan Evbuomwan DET
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Stanley Umude DET
8%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
30%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.6 6.0 3.9
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.9 5.1 8.3
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.4 6.7 2.3
4 Jaden Ivey DET 18.1 3.8 4.3
5 Derrick White BOS 15.0 5.8 6.1
6 Jalen Duren DET 14.1 10.9 2.2
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.0 3.7 4.1
8 James Wiseman DET 8.5 6.6 1.3
9 Sam Hauser BOS 8.0 3.5 0.9
10 Marcus Sasser DET 7.0 2.6 3.1
11 Evan Fournier DET 6.9 2.0 2.0
12 Luke Kornet BOS 5.9 4.5 1.1
13 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.7 3.4 1.3
14 Stanley Umude DET 5.6 2.3 0.7
15 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 4.9 2.5 0.8
16 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.6 1.7 1.1
17 Malachi Flynn DET 4.2 1.4 1.1
18 Buddy Boeheim DET 4.1 1.2 0.6
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.9 2.7 1.0
20 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.8 2.1 0.8
21 Chimezie Metu DET 3.7 2.9 0.6
22 Jared Rhoden DET 3.7 1.8 0.7
23 Neemias Queta BOS 3.4 2.9 0.4
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.6 1.8 0.7
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.3 2.4 0.6
26 JD Davison BOS 1.8 0.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.