NBA games

ATL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
115–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL37233322115
PHX30353132128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home PHX
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 40 29 9 10
De'Andre Hunter S 34 22 4 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 36 16 2 3
Clint Capela S 25 13 10 2
Vit Krejci S 38 9 1 4
Garrison Mathews 21 9 2 2
Onyeka Okongwu 19 8 3 1
Bruno Fernando 4 4 3 0
Wesley Matthews 14 3 1 0
Trent Forrest 10 2 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 32 30 4 2
Eric Gordon 24 21 1 5
Kevin Durant S 37 19 4 2
Royce O'Neale 15 14 5 2
Grayson Allen S 36 13 3 4
Bradley Beal S 37 12 4 9
Drew Eubanks 16 7 4 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 7 10 2
Bol Bol 11 5 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
6 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
7 Clint Capela ATL
10%
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
8%
9 Vit Krejci ATL
6%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
47%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.0 5.3 6.7
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.5 4.7 8.2
3 Kevin Durant PHX 25.5 7.0 4.1
4 Trae Young ATL 21.6 2.6 11.2
5 Bradley Beal PHX 20.9 4.2 6.4
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.9 4.0 4.3
7 Grayson Allen PHX 16.6 3.4 3.7
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.6 2.9 1.9
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.3 7.3 1.5
10 Clint Capela ATL 12.3 10.3 1.9
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.2 11.3 4.0
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.6 4.5 3.0
13 Eric Gordon PHX 9.2 2.2 2.0
14 Bruno Fernando ATL 5.8 6.4 1.3
15 Thaddeus Young PHX 5.4 3.7 1.3
16 Bol Bol PHX 5.2 3.4 0.7
17 Vit Krejci ATL 4.8 1.6 1.6
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.7 1.6 0.8
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.7 4.3 0.7
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.9 1.5 0.7
21 Ish Wainright PHX 3.5 1.7 0.7
22 Trent Forrest ATL 3.1 1.5 1.9
23 Nassir Little PHX 2.9 1.4 0.7
24 David Roddy PHX 2.6 1.2 0.6
25 Dylan Windler ATL 1.8 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.