NBA games

NY @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
100–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY30262024100
DEN32292725113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DEN
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 26 2 9
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 20 8 3
Alec Burks 21 18 5 1
Miles McBride S 44 11 3 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 11 2 4
Precious Achiuwa 25 9 5 3
Bojan Bogdanovic 14 3 1 2
Josh Hart S 36 2 3 1
Jericho Sims 8 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 31 8 0
Nikola Jokic S 39 30 14 11
Jamal Murray S 34 23 6 4
Aaron Gordon S 35 10 4 8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 6 4 3
Reggie Jackson 13 4 0 4
Peyton Watson 13 4 1 0
Christian Braun 13 3 3 1
DeAndre Jordan 9 2 1 0
Justin Holiday 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donte DiVincenzo NY
21%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Miles McBride NY
8%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.6 3.7 6.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.2 11.7 6.9
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.9 4.9 7.7
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.3 6.4 2.2
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.4 4.5 3.8
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.8 6.3 3.6
7 Miles McBride NY 11.2 2.3 2.6
8 Josh Hart NY 10.3 8.6 4.5
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.3 7.6 1.7
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.1 2.6 2.5
11 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 9.4 2.5 1.7
12 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 7.5 8.0 2.7
13 Mamadi Diakite NY 7.1 2.9 0.6
14 Christian Braun DEN 6.7 3.4 1.3
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.1 3.4 1.0
16 Reggie Jackson DEN 5.4 1.5 1.7
17 Alec Burks NY 5.0 1.6 0.8
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.9 1.6 1.6
19 Jericho Sims NY 4.6 4.7 1.1
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.0 3.3 0.4
21 Shake Milton NY 2.7 1.8 0.8
22 Julian Strawther DEN 1.5 0.6 0.5
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.1 0.6 0.2
24 Braxton Key DEN 1.0 0.6 0.3
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.0 0.6 0.3
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.0 0.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.