NBA games

UTAH @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
97–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH2715312497
DAL26273030113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DAL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 36 21 3 2
Collin Sexton 34 20 4 5
Keyonte George S 33 18 2 5
Walker Kessler S 27 14 9 2
Omer Yurtseven 21 10 5 2
Taylor Hendricks S 28 5 2 0
Kris Dunn S 20 4 4 5
Brice Sensabaugh 20 3 8 5
Micah Potter 7 2 1 0
Johnny Juzang 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 35 34 9 8
Daniel Gafford S 27 24 7 5
Kyrie Irving S 35 16 5 7
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 12 4 2
Maxi Kleber 18 7 2 2
Dereck Lively II 15 6 5 1
Jaden Hardy 17 6 2 5
P.J. Washington S 33 6 5 1
A.J. Lawson 1 2 0 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes layup (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
17%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
50%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 32.0 9.4 10.9
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.7 4.9 6.1
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.5 3.7 6.1
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.6 6.7 2.9
5 Keyonte George UTAH 20.2 3.6 5.5
6 P.J. Washington DAL 11.4 5.8 1.5
7 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.1 7.7 1.3
8 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 10.2 6.8 1.1
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.1 5.0 1.1
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.5 3.6 2.1
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.0 2.3 1.7
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.5 2.5 1.3
13 Dante Exum DAL 7.2 2.2 2.7
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.1 8.3 1.3
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.6 2.6 2.9
16 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 6.1 2.4 2.0
17 Johnny Juzang UTAH 5.7 2.0 1.0
18 Micah Potter UTAH 4.6 2.2 0.7
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 1.0 1.1
20 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.4 3.2 0.6
21 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.2 2.5 0.7
22 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.1 2.8 1.5
23 Jason Preston UTAH 2.8 1.9 1.5
24 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 2.5 1.4 0.7
25 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.4 0.9 0.4
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.3 0.7 0.5
27 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.1 1.0 0.5
28 Dwight Powell DAL 1.9 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.