NBA games

BKN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
108–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN19252539108
MIL26342134115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 33 24 6 2
Nic Claxton S 34 22 9 1
Cam Thomas S 39 21 6 4
Cameron Johnson S 35 17 8 4
Noah Clowney 14 5 4 1
Dennis Smith Jr. 19 5 3 6
Dennis Schroder S 34 5 2 9
Jalen Wilson 11 4 5 2
Trendon Watford 8 3 3 0
Lonnie Walker IV 12 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 37 30 3 12
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 21 9 5
Brook Lopez S 28 17 5 0
Malik Beasley S 31 16 6 0
AJ Green 14 15 2 0
Bobby Portis 30 6 9 2
Jae Crowder S 30 6 3 2
Pat Connaughton 15 2 0 4
Patrick Beverley 19 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes 13-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
15%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
12%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
6 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
8 Jae Crowder MIL
7%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
19%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.9 10.9 6.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.1 4.4 7.9
3 Cam Thomas BKN 22.5 4.3 3.8
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.0 4.4 4.1
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 18.3 3.1 7.0
6 Bobby Portis MIL 17.8 9.0 1.8
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.6 3.3 2.3
8 Nic Claxton BKN 13.9 9.7 2.6
9 Brook Lopez MIL 10.2 4.5 2.0
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.1 3.6 1.7
11 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.7 3.0 1.4
12 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.3 2.2 0.9
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.9 3.5 1.7
14 Jae Crowder MIL 6.3 2.5 1.0
15 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.2 2.3 2.6
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.2 5.6 1.7
17 AJ Green MIL 5.0 1.7 0.8
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.9 2.8 1.1
19 Trendon Watford BKN 4.6 2.6 0.7
20 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.2 1.5 0.7
21 Noah Clowney BKN 2.8 1.4 0.6
22 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 2.5 1.3 0.7
23 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.0 0.9 0.3
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.4 0.6 0.4
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.3 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.