NBA games

CHI @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
117–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI28333323117
HOU42263722127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home HOU
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 35 2 2
Nikola Vucevic S 39 16 14 6
DeMar DeRozan S 24 16 2 2
Coby White 29 13 4 3
Alex Caruso S 35 12 2 4
Torrey Craig S 25 10 4 1
Andre Drummond 24 9 8 0
Dalen Terry 17 6 7 5
Onuralp Bitim 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 40 26 4 3
Dillon Brooks S 25 23 2 1
Jock Landale 27 17 12 5
Amen Thompson S 26 15 8 3
Aaron Holiday 18 15 3 1
Jeff Green 27 14 7 0
Fred VanVleet S 39 9 3 12
Jabari Smith Jr. S 22 5 7 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 11 3 3 0
Jae'Sean Tate 3 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Jalen Green makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
11%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
6 Jalen Green HOU
10%
7 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
9%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 26.8 5.0 5.7
2 Jalen Green HOU 25.7 6.0 4.1
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.1 10.2 3.1
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 20.0 4.4 9.3
5 Coby White CHI 19.2 4.3 4.9
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.3 3.8 6.0
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.1 7.9 1.7
8 Amen Thompson HOU 11.0 6.8 1.9
9 Alex Caruso CHI 10.9 3.9 4.3
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.1 3.4 2.0
11 Jock Landale HOU 6.5 4.1 1.3
12 Torrey Craig CHI 5.9 3.0 1.3
13 Andre Drummond CHI 5.9 7.2 0.6
14 Onuralp Bitim CHI 5.3 2.2 1.0
15 Jeff Green HOU 5.2 1.9 1.1
16 Jevon Carter CHI 4.3 1.2 1.0
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.9 2.7 0.9
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.8 1.3 1.6
19 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.3 1.7 0.7
20 Julian Phillips CHI 3.2 1.2 0.4
21 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.2 2.3 0.7
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.0 1.5 1.0
23 Nate Williams HOU 2.9 1.5 0.7
24 Terry Taylor CHI 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.