NBA games

SAC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
102–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC27272226102
WSH35212825109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home WSH
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 25 5 5
Malik Monk 29 20 1 4
Keegan Murray S 30 16 2 1
Domantas Sabonis S 39 14 14 6
Harrison Barnes S 28 12 2 1
Davion Mitchell 19 5 2 1
Chris Duarte 19 3 3 2
Kessler Edwards 9 3 3 1
Keon Ellis S 21 2 1 0
Alex Len 9 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 37 31 6 5
Deni Avdija S 32 17 9 5
Corey Kispert S 37 15 3 2
Jordan Poole S 36 14 2 2
Jared Butler 19 8 1 1
Anthony Gill 18 8 2 1
Richaun Holmes S 29 6 16 2
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 9 6 2 0
Johnny Davis 13 4 3 1
Justin Champagnie 9 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Corey Kispert · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Corey Kispert makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
4 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH
9%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
7 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
8 Johnny Davis WSH
7%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
10 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
42%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.8 5.6 6.9
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.2 6.8 4.8
3 Malik Monk SAC 23.1 4.6 6.0
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.5 14.2 8.1
5 Jordan Poole WSH 19.0 3.5 4.9
6 Deni Avdija WSH 18.4 8.9 3.1
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 14.1 3.2 1.6
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.4 6.3 1.9
9 Corey Kispert WSH 11.5 2.9 1.8
10 Justin Champagnie WSH 7.2 3.3 1.2
11 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.8 1.9 1.6
12 Richaun Holmes WSH 6.8 4.8 0.8
13 Keon Ellis SAC 6.7 3.4 1.8
14 Chris Duarte SAC 6.7 3.1 1.0
15 Jared Butler WSH 5.6 1.6 3.2
16 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.6 3.1 1.0
17 Jules Bernard WSH 4.2 1.2 0.9
18 Johnny Davis WSH 4.1 1.8 0.8
19 Alex Len SAC 4.0 3.0 0.9
20 JaVale McGee SAC 4.0 3.0 0.6
21 Anthony Gill WSH 3.9 1.9 0.9
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.8 1.6 0.7
23 Colby Jones SAC 2.9 2.0 1.0
24 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.8 2.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.