NBA games

NO @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
106–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28202731106
ORL23343826121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home ORL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III 29 21 3 0
Zion Williamson S 29 20 7 2
CJ McCollum S 34 18 3 3
Brandon Ingram S 21 14 4 3
Herbert Jones S 32 13 6 5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 12 6 1 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 18 6 5 1
Naji Marshall 18 4 0 2
Matt Ryan 6 2 0 0
Jordan Hawkins 6 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 28 22 1 2
Paolo Banchero S 33 20 10 11
Franz Wagner S 28 18 3 3
Moritz Wagner 14 14 1 0
Cole Anthony 18 10 5 1
Jonathan Isaac 16 9 5 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 23 8 6 4
Markelle Fultz 20 6 1 6
Gary Harris S 12 5 1 0
Goga Bitadze 5 4 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 15-foot two point shot (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
16%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
3 Brandon Ingram NO
12%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
6 CJ McCollum NO
8%
7 Herbert Jones NO
7%
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO
7%
9 Gary Harris ORL
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 6.1 6.2
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.4 7.2 4.7
3 Brandon Ingram NO 19.9 5.8 5.6
4 Franz Wagner ORL 17.1 5.1 3.4
5 Trey Murphy III NO 16.3 5.1 3.1
6 CJ McCollum NO 14.3 3.8 3.1
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.5 3.5 3.7
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.5 7.4 2.4
9 Herbert Jones NO 10.0 3.2 2.4
10 Cole Anthony ORL 9.4 4.0 2.1
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.7 3.8 1.3
12 Gary Harris ORL 7.9 2.0 1.4
13 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.5 4.3 0.7
14 Naji Marshall NO 6.9 4.3 2.0
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.9 2.1 2.2
16 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.4 3.1 1.3
17 Jonas Valanciunas NO 6.3 6.4 1.5
18 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.1 4.4 1.7
19 Joe Ingles ORL 5.2 1.4 2.6
20 Anthony Black ORL 4.8 2.3 1.0
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.5 1.1 0.4
22 Matt Ryan NO 3.2 1.0 0.3
23 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.1 2.4 0.9
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.6 1.1 0.7
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.6 1.2 0.6
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.3 1.0 0.5
27 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.0 1.1 0.6
28 Cody Zeller NO 0.8 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.