NBA games

LAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
116–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC27333422116
POR28222033103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home POR
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 36 27 6 4
Kawhi Leonard S 28 24 4 2
James Harden S 36 19 4 14
Ivica Zubac S 24 14 9 2
Amir Coffey S 31 11 1 2
Daniel Theis 20 10 5 2
Brandon Boston 23 9 2 0
Xavier Moon 6 2 0 0
Bones Hyland 7 0 1 2
P.J. Tucker 26 0 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson S 35 18 2 5
Kris Murray S 33 17 5 2
Anfernee Simons S 28 14 4 1
Jabari Walker 23 12 3 0
Dalano Banton 28 12 3 6
Duop Reath 16 8 2 1
Rayan Rupert 20 8 5 3
Deandre Ayton S 26 8 7 1
Justin Minaya 7 3 2 0
Toumani Camara S 18 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scoot Henderson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Scoot Henderson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
15%
2 James Harden LAC
13%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
11%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
7 Paul George LAC
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
9%
9 Kris Murray POR
9%
10 Amir Coffey LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 23.7 4.9 3.9
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.7 5.8 3.8
3 Anfernee Simons POR 23.6 4.4 7.5
4 Deandre Ayton POR 21.4 11.8 2.3
5 James Harden LAC 20.6 4.8 8.8
6 Dalano Banton POR 18.9 5.0 3.7
7 Scoot Henderson POR 15.1 3.8 5.5
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.4 6.8 1.8
9 Toumani Camara POR 10.1 5.3 1.9
10 Jabari Walker POR 9.4 6.2 1.6
11 Kris Murray POR 9.0 4.7 2.2
12 Duop Reath POR 8.9 2.8 1.2
13 Bones Hyland LAC 6.7 1.7 3.3
14 Amir Coffey LAC 6.3 2.8 1.4
15 Daniel Theis LAC 4.8 4.2 1.0
16 Xavier Moon LAC 4.5 1.8 1.6
17 Rayan Rupert POR 3.5 1.8 1.1
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.4 3.6 1.0
19 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.1 2.0 0.8
20 Brandon Boston LAC 3.1 1.4 0.5
21 Moses Brown POR 1.9 3.0 0.3
22 Justin Minaya POR 1.7 0.8 0.4
23 Ibou Badji POR 1.7 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.