NBA games

PHI @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
102–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI23241936102
PHX21393025115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home PHX
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 18 5 4
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 12 12 2 5
Cameron Payne 15 12 1 3
KJ Martin 26 11 13 2
Ricky Council IV 12 10 0 2
Mo Bamba S 19 9 5 0
Nicolas Batum S 24 8 3 0
Buddy Hield 15 7 2 0
Tyrese Maxey S 29 6 0 7
Kyle Lowry S 25 5 3 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 34 32 4 5
Kevin Durant S 36 22 8 4
Devin Booker S 35 18 9 11
Royce O'Neale 10 13 4 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 10 14 3
Bol Bol 14 10 3 0
Drew Eubanks 14 4 4 1
Bradley Beal S 37 3 6 7
Nassir Little 2 3 0 0
David Roddy 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mo Bamba · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Mo Bamba makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kyle Lowry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
9 Mo Bamba PHI
6%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
45%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.4 4.4 5.5
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.8 7.1 4.5
3 Devin Booker PHX 25.2 5.0 6.4
4 Bradley Beal PHX 21.3 4.1 5.5
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 19.2 5.8 2.4
6 Tobias Harris PHI 15.9 6.7 2.0
7 Grayson Allen PHX 14.7 3.4 2.8
8 Buddy Hield PHI 11.9 3.4 3.1
9 Paul Reed PHI 11.2 7.6 1.8
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.5 11.8 3.7
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 10.2 3.3 4.8
12 Cameron Payne PHI 10.2 2.1 3.4
13 Eric Gordon PHX 9.8 2.1 1.8
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.1 5.0 3.5
15 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.8 5.2 2.0
16 Mo Bamba PHI 5.3 4.2 1.1
17 Thaddeus Young PHX 4.9 3.8 1.4
18 Bol Bol PHX 4.6 3.3 0.5
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.0 4.4 0.5
20 KJ Martin PHI 3.9 2.2 0.8
21 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.7 1.0 1.3
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.5 1.5 0.4
23 Ish Wainright PHX 2.8 1.4 0.5
24 Nassir Little PHX 2.1 1.1 0.6
25 David Roddy PHX 2.0 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.