NBA games

MEM @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
116–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32263226116
GS33354029137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home GS
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 35 35 5 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 28 4 3
Santi Aldama S 34 27 9 4
Jake LaRavia 32 12 5 3
Desmond Bane S 24 6 1 4
Trey Jemison III 25 4 4 2
DeJon Jarreau 20 2 10 5
Maozinha Pereira 6 2 0 0
John Konchar S 33 0 7 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 28 26 5 4
Klay Thompson 25 23 0 2
Andrew Wiggins S 29 22 10 3
Stephen Curry S 24 14 2 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 26 13 5 2
Chris Paul 24 12 4 14
Draymond Green S 24 10 12 7
Lester Quinones 4 4 2 1
Gary Payton II 11 4 1 1
Moses Moody 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
17%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
6 GG Jackson MEM
7%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
5%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.4 6.3 3.7
2 Desmond Bane MEM 23.1 4.8 6.2
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.4 4.7 4.6
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.1 5.1 2.7
5 GG Jackson MEM 17.5 4.4 1.9
6 Klay Thompson GS 17.0 3.3 2.6
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.8 6.0 2.8
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 13.6 5.7 5.9
9 Jake LaRavia MEM 13.2 4.8 2.2
10 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.7 4.2 2.0
11 Chris Paul GS 11.1 4.1 5.8
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.6 6.4 1.6
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.8 3.5 1.8
14 Lamar Stevens MEM 9.6 4.1 1.0
15 Draymond Green GS 9.2 8.0 6.0
16 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.8 4.6 4.0
17 Moses Moody GS 8.7 3.9 1.1
18 John Konchar MEM 8.5 6.0 2.7
19 Trey Jemison III MEM 8.1 5.4 1.3
20 DeJon Jarreau MEM 6.5 4.8 3.3
21 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 2.5 1.2
22 Wenyen Gabriel MEM 3.3 3.4 0.6
23 Matt Hurt MEM 3.2 1.6 0.5
24 Lester Quinones GS 3.1 1.6 0.5
25 Gui Santos GS 2.8 2.0 0.7
26 Dario Saric GS 2.3 1.4 1.4
27 Kevon Looney GS 1.9 2.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.