NBA games

UTAH @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH25292627107
OKC31222937119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home OKC
4% 96%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 30 25 5 7
John Collins S 23 16 6 0
Taylor Hendricks S 24 12 4 1
Johnny Juzang 20 9 1 0
Keyonte George S 28 9 7 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 8 2 2
Kira Lewis Jr. 4 6 1 2
Omer Yurtseven 4 6 3 0
Kris Dunn S 23 5 1 3
Walker Kessler 23 4 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 31 35 14 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 31 3 7
Jalen Williams S 32 18 2 4
Luguentz Dort S 26 9 3 1
Gordon Hayward 17 7 2 3
Aaron Wiggins 18 6 2 2
Cason Wallace 22 5 4 2
Josh Giddey S 26 5 11 8
Jaylin Williams 15 3 2 0
Isaiah Joe 14 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 John Collins UTAH
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
8 Luka Samanic UTAH
8%
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
8%
10 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
78%
Jumper
7%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.3 6.3 6.0
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.7 3.3 5.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.4 4.9 4.4
4 Keyonte George UTAH 19.7 3.5 5.8
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.6 8.5 2.6
6 John Collins UTAH 16.4 8.5 1.6
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.2 5.7 4.3
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.0 3.0 1.6
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.2 6.5 1.1
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.6 3.3 2.0
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.8 8.1 1.3
12 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.8 2.6 2.8
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.1 1.9 1.0
14 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 6.0 2.3 2.2
15 Cason Wallace OKC 5.9 2.2 1.7
16 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.1 1.8 1.7
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.0 2.1 0.9
18 Johnny Juzang UTAH 4.8 1.6 0.8
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.0 2.9 1.1
20 Micah Potter UTAH 3.9 1.8 0.5
21 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.5 2.8 0.5
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.0 1.0 1.1
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.9 1.9 0.5
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.9 1.2 0.6
25 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.9 3.0 0.8
26 Mike Muscala OKC 2.9 1.3 0.6
27 Jason Preston UTAH 2.7 1.9 1.8
28 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.6 2.4 1.0
29 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 2.5 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.