NBA games

SAC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
123–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC32363124123
TOR2718202489

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home TOR
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 28 20 4 5
Malik Monk 20 17 2 2
Harrison Barnes S 19 16 2 1
Chris Duarte 19 14 5 2
Domantas Sabonis S 28 13 17 10
Keegan Murray S 31 10 8 1
Kessler Edwards 12 9 3 1
Davion Mitchell 21 8 2 3
Alex Len 16 6 3 4
Keon Ellis S 25 6 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 32 18 6 2
Ochai Agbaji S 30 13 3 1
Jordan Nwora 17 13 2 0
Jahmi'us Ramsey 22 11 3 1
Bruce Brown S 26 9 5 6
Kelly Olynyk S 30 9 3 4
Gradey Dick S 32 5 1 3
Jalen McDaniels 13 4 0 3
Javon Freeman-Liberty 21 4 4 1
Mouhamadou Gueye 13 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
13%
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
12%
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR
11%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
10%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
0%
10 Kessler Edwards SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
29%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.2 5.6 6.9
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.0 15.1 9.0
3 Malik Monk SAC 23.0 4.7 6.3
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 16.0 4.1 1.9
5 Keegan Murray SAC 14.8 6.0 2.0
6 Kelly Olynyk TOR 14.4 5.7 4.3
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 13.3 3.4 1.8
8 Bruce Brown TOR 10.1 3.5 2.9
9 Gradey Dick TOR 9.9 2.7 1.6
10 Jordan Nwora TOR 7.2 3.4 0.9
11 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.5 1.9 1.5
12 Keon Ellis SAC 6.2 3.3 1.6
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.2 3.2 1.2
14 Chris Duarte SAC 6.0 2.8 0.9
15 Jahmi'us Ramsey TOR 4.9 3.1 1.0
16 Jontay Porter TOR 4.3 2.8 2.0
17 Alex Len SAC 3.9 3.0 0.7
18 JaVale McGee SAC 3.3 2.5 0.4
19 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 3.3 1.8 0.9
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.1 1.9 0.8
21 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.5 1.2 0.6
22 Garrett Temple TOR 2.3 1.2 0.6
23 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 2.2 2.2 0.3
24 Colby Jones SAC 1.8 1.2 0.7
25 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.7 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.