NBA games

MIL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
119–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28282736119
BOS33363221122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BOS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 36 32 4 6
Bobby Portis 33 24 15 0
Khris Middleton S 33 22 6 6
Patrick Beverley 22 9 0 0
Brook Lopez S 21 8 2 4
Pat Connaughton 24 7 5 1
Jae Crowder S 15 7 2 2
Malik Beasley S 28 6 6 0
Danilo Gallinari 19 4 1 1
AJ Green 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 31 8 4
Derrick White S 37 23 5 8
Jaylen Brown S 37 21 8 2
Payton Pritchard 31 19 6 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 17 3 2
Al Horford S 38 8 4 4
Svi Mykhailiuk 5 3 0 0
Luke Kornet 9 0 0 0
Xavier Tillman 14 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Derrick White makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
6 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
9 Al Horford BOS
6%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
5%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.4 6.5 4.6
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.0 6.8 5.8
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.1 4.7 7.5
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.3 7.4 2.3
5 Bobby Portis MIL 17.1 8.4 1.9
6 Khris Middleton MIL 16.7 4.3 4.6
7 Derrick White BOS 13.1 5.9 6.1
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.8 3.3 3.9
9 Al Horford BOS 10.4 5.4 1.8
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.1 3.4 1.7
11 Brook Lopez MIL 8.7 4.4 1.6
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.6 2.7 1.6
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.2 3.7 1.7
14 Jae Crowder MIL 6.1 2.7 1.0
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.9 4.6 1.2
16 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.6 3.6 1.2
17 AJ Green MIL 4.8 1.5 0.8
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.5 1.6 1.2
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.1 2.8 1.1
20 Jaden Springer BOS 2.9 2.0 0.7
21 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.4 1.0 0.5
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.0 1.0 0.3
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.5 0.7 0.3
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.5 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.