NBA games

IND @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
122–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND29343524122
DET24282625103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DET
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 27 25 8 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 26 20 3 9
Aaron Nesmith S 26 14 1 0
T.J. McConnell 21 13 2 6
Isaiah Jackson 28 10 11 6
Ben Sheppard 22 9 2 3
Doug McDermott 16 9 3 2
Andrew Nembhard S 26 7 0 3
Myles Turner S 20 6 5 3
Obi Toppin 15 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 29 23 6 10
Jaden Ivey S 30 15 2 3
Jalen Duren S 27 11 12 1
Tosan Evbuomwan S 30 11 4 0
Chimezie Metu 22 8 3 1
James Wiseman 17 8 9 1
Stanley Umude S 22 8 1 0
Marcus Sasser 20 6 2 1
Buddy Boeheim 3 6 1 0
Evan Fournier 22 5 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 9-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
21%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Myles Turner IND
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
9 Stanley Umude DET
6%
10 Marcus Sasser DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
40%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.2 4.8 8.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.2 9.2 3.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.3 5.1 9.6
4 Jaden Ivey DET 18.3 3.9 4.3
5 Myles Turner IND 16.1 6.4 1.5
6 Jalen Duren DET 14.4 11.0 2.5
7 T.J. McConnell IND 12.6 3.6 4.5
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.6 3.6 1.6
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.8 2.9 2.9
10 Jalen Smith IND 8.7 5.2 1.1
11 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 4.0 1.2
12 James Wiseman DET 8.2 6.8 1.2
13 Marcus Sasser DET 7.0 2.7 3.2
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.8 2.2 1.2
15 Evan Fournier DET 6.6 1.9 1.7
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.1 4.0 0.5
17 Stanley Umude DET 5.6 2.7 0.8
18 Malachi Flynn DET 4.5 1.5 1.1
19 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 4.2 2.4 0.7
20 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.8 2.2 0.9
21 Jared Rhoden DET 3.6 1.8 0.7
22 Chimezie Metu DET 3.3 2.8 0.7
23 Doug McDermott IND 3.1 0.8 0.6
24 Jarace Walker IND 2.7 1.9 0.6
25 Kendall Brown IND 1.6 0.6 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.