NBA games

MIA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
107–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA31302224107
CLE30271829104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CLE
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 30 4 5
Terry Rozier S 33 24 3 2
Nikola Jovic S 33 14 6 1
Patty Mills S 25 10 1 4
Orlando Robinson 13 8 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 31 7 1 2
Thomas Bryant S 15 6 10 0
Caleb Martin 32 4 6 2
Delon Wright 15 2 2 1
Haywood Highsmith 5 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 39 25 20 3
Darius Garland S 41 20 1 9
Georges Niang S 35 18 3 1
Caris LeVert S 37 16 5 12
Sam Merrill 21 12 1 0
Isaac Okoro S 38 7 1 1
Marcus Morris Sr. 16 4 2 3
Craig Porter Jr. 4 2 0 0
Tristan Thompson 9 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Caris LeVert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 Terry Rozier MIA
13%
3 Darius Garland CLE
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Isaac Okoro CLE
10%
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
9%
7 Haywood Highsmith MIA
9%
8 Caris LeVert CLE
8%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
10 Georges Niang CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
23%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.3 5.6 5.9
2 Darius Garland CLE 21.5 3.6 6.8
3 Terry Rozier MIA 19.0 4.9 5.4
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.1 11.4 2.4
5 Caris LeVert CLE 14.9 4.9 8.5
6 Caleb Martin MIA 12.3 5.4 2.0
7 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.9 3.9 2.3
8 Georges Niang CLE 11.4 3.5 2.0
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.8 4.8 2.6
10 Sam Merrill CLE 8.9 2.6 2.2
11 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 8.1 3.4 1.1
12 Ty Jerome CLE 6.7 2.1 3.5
13 Tristan Thompson CLE 5.7 4.5 1.7
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.6 3.3 1.4
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.1 2.0 1.5
16 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.3 2.8 0.6
17 Delon Wright MIA 4.1 1.8 1.6
18 Jamal Cain MIA 4.0 1.8 0.4
19 Patty Mills MIA 3.9 1.8 1.0
20 Haywood Highsmith MIA 3.9 2.0 0.8
21 Damian Jones CLE 2.9 2.3 0.5
22 Alondes Williams MIA 2.7 1.1 0.5
23 Emoni Bates CLE 2.3 0.9 0.5
24 Cole Swider MIA 1.8 0.5 0.4
25 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.3 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.