NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
115–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN35351728115
MIN28272928112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 35 16 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 26 4 1
Jamal Murray S 32 18 4 11
Aaron Gordon S 32 14 11 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 38 9 2 1
Justin Holiday 18 6 2 3
Christian Braun 18 3 4 0
Peyton Watson 16 2 3 0
Reggie Jackson 17 2 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 30 8 8
Jaden McDaniels S 38 26 6 0
Mike Conley S 29 13 6 5
Kyle Anderson S 26 12 3 4
Luka Garza 22 11 6 0
Monte Morris 23 8 1 2
T.J. Warren 9 6 2 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 37 4 2 3
Jordan McLaughlin 19 2 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
9%
9 Kyle Anderson MIN
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
10%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.1 5.9 4.9
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.9 11.9 7.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.2 4.7 7.1
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.9 6.5 2.1
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.9 6.1 3.8
6 Mike Conley MIN 12.4 3.5 4.6
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.4 3.3 2.6
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.1 12.3 1.6
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.9 2.8 2.6
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.6 4.6 1.6
11 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.5 4.1 4.7
12 Christian Braun DEN 6.6 3.5 1.3
13 Peyton Watson DEN 6.3 3.5 1.0
14 Monte Morris MIN 5.9 1.7 2.4
15 Reggie Jackson DEN 5.4 1.3 1.6
16 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.9 2.1 1.9
17 T.J. Warren MIN 4.6 2.2 1.0
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.5 1.5 1.3
19 Luka Garza MIN 4.2 1.5 0.6
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.0 3.4 0.4
21 Josh Minott MIN 2.6 1.5 0.5
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.5 1.8 0.6
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.2 1.2 0.5
24 Daishen Nix MIN 1.9 0.6 0.3
25 Jay Huff DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3
26 Julian Strawther DEN 1.5 0.7 0.5
27 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.1 0.7 0.2
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.1 0.4 0.5
29 Braxton Key DEN 1.0 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.