NBA games

DAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
113–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL38272622113
SA30262823107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 38 28 7 3
Luka Doncic S 40 18 10 16
Dante Exum 28 16 1 2
Daniel Gafford S 24 13 8 3
Dereck Lively II 16 12 5 1
P.J. Washington S 34 8 6 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 17 5 1 1
Maxi Kleber 22 5 1 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 15 4 1 0
Jaden Hardy 5 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 33 22 3 9
Devin Vassell S 36 19 6 3
Keldon Johnson 28 14 6 2
Jeremy Sochan S 30 13 10 6
Victor Wembanyama S 32 12 11 3
Malaki Branham 20 11 4 1
Julian Champagnie S 20 6 3 1
Cedi Osman 11 5 0 1
Dominick Barlow 16 4 1 5
Blake Wesley 13 1 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
15%
2 Luka Doncic DAL
13%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
8 Tre Jones SA
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
55%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.4 9.8 11.5
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 4.6 5.6
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.2 11.7 5.3
4 Devin Vassell SA 22.3 4.8 5.7
5 Keldon Johnson SA 15.4 4.7 2.2
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.6 6.9 3.0
7 P.J. Washington DAL 11.9 6.2 1.4
8 Malaki Branham SA 11.8 2.4 2.4
9 Tre Jones SA 11.0 4.3 7.1
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.8 7.5 1.1
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.7 5.0 0.9
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.2 2.5 1.8
13 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.5 2.9 1.1
14 Julian Champagnie SA 7.0 3.0 1.7
15 Dante Exum DAL 6.1 2.2 2.5
16 Dominick Barlow SA 6.0 4.1 1.2
17 Blake Wesley SA 5.3 1.9 2.5
18 Cedi Osman SA 5.0 2.0 1.5
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.3 1.1 0.9
20 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.0 3.1 1.2
21 Devonte' Graham SA 3.0 1.2 0.5
22 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.3 1.0 0.3
23 Markieff Morris DAL 2.2 0.9 0.4
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.0 1.4 0.6
25 Dwight Powell DAL 1.8 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.