NBA games

NO @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
10491
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO27372119104
BKN2124242291

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home BKN
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 28 7 4
CJ McCollum S 32 16 1 5
Larry Nance Jr. 28 13 10 2
Brandon Ingram S 32 11 4 6
Herbert Jones S 34 11 3 3
Trey Murphy III 30 10 8 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 17 8 7 2
Naji Marshall 19 4 5 3
Jose Alvarado 17 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 34 25 3 2
Mikal Bridges S 32 15 2 1
Dennis Schroder S 34 12 2 5
Cameron Johnson 22 10 4 1
Nic Claxton S 22 8 6 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 24 8 17 3
Jalen Wilson 10 6 2 0
Lonnie Walker IV 16 3 1 0
Keita Bates-Diop 5 2 1 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 28 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes 1-foot dunk (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
3 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
6 Brandon Ingram NO
9%
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
9 CJ McCollum NO
8%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
25%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.0 7.6 5.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.1 4.3 4.0
3 Brandon Ingram NO 22.0 5.9 5.7
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 19.8 3.4 7.1
5 Mikal Bridges BKN 18.3 4.6 4.4
6 Trey Murphy III NO 17.6 5.3 2.9
7 CJ McCollum NO 16.0 4.2 3.1
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 13.8 3.4 2.2
9 Nic Claxton BKN 13.4 10.0 2.5
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.6 3.4 2.4
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.5 4.2 2.3
12 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.3 2.1 0.9
13 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.9 2.4 2.7
14 Jose Alvarado NO 6.8 2.1 2.3
15 Jonas Valanciunas NO 6.7 7.3 1.4
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.4 4.0 1.9
17 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.8 4.6 1.6
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.7 4.5 1.7
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.5 2.8 1.1
20 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.1 1.5 0.6
21 Trendon Watford BKN 4.0 2.2 0.7
22 Matt Ryan NO 3.7 1.2 0.3
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.6 1.4 0.8
24 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 1.9 1.1 0.5
25 Cody Zeller NO 1.1 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.