NBA games

HOU @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
137–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU39214136137
WSH36212532114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home WSH
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 36 42 10 3
Amen Thompson S 32 25 10 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 31 18 14 0
Jeff Green 18 12 2 1
Jock Landale 20 10 3 0
Aaron Holiday 21 7 0 6
Fred VanVleet S 32 7 3 11
Jae'Sean Tate 15 6 3 1
Boban Marjanovic 2 5 0 0
Nate Williams 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Justin Champagnie 31 16 8 2
Jules Bernard 19 16 2 4
Corey Kispert S 35 16 1 1
Jared Butler 31 15 3 9
Jordan Poole S 28 13 5 2
Anthony Gill 22 12 8 3
Patrick Baldwin Jr. S 21 12 7 3
Richaun Holmes S 26 12 9 0
Johnny Davis S 27 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
13%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
8%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
7 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
8 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 24.7 5.7 4.0
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.4 3.6 5.3
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.8 4.3 8.8
4 Deni Avdija WSH 19.1 9.1 3.2
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.3 7.7 1.9
6 Corey Kispert WSH 12.3 3.4 2.1
7 Tyus Jones WSH 10.9 2.9 8.5
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.2 3.7 2.0
9 Amen Thompson HOU 8.9 6.5 1.6
10 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.5 3.9 1.2
11 Richaun Holmes WSH 5.9 4.3 0.7
12 Jock Landale HOU 5.5 3.5 1.3
13 Jared Butler WSH 5.0 1.4 2.5
14 Jeff Green HOU 4.5 1.8 1.0
15 Johnny Davis WSH 4.2 2.0 0.9
16 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.0 3.2 0.9
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.6 1.2 1.1
18 Jules Bernard WSH 3.6 1.4 0.7
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 2.6 0.8
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.3 2.4 0.6
21 Anthony Gill WSH 3.2 1.5 0.7
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.0 1.8 0.6
23 Nate Williams HOU 2.9 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.