NBA games

CHA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
92–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1715332792
ORL27402421112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ORL
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 32 21 7 1
Vasilije Micic S 27 20 1 1
Miles Bridges S 38 16 4 5
Tre Mann S 29 11 4 5
Nick Smith Jr. 6 8 0 1
Grant Williams 23 5 3 1
Nick Richards S 28 4 6 3
Aleksej Pokusevski 28 3 5 1
JT Thor 13 2 0 0
Amari Bailey 6 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 21 21 6 3
Jalen Suggs S 25 16 4 6
Paolo Banchero S 26 13 1 5
Moritz Wagner 14 13 5 2
Franz Wagner S 24 11 0 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 8 8 3
Jonathan Isaac 8 8 2 1
Goga Bitadze 9 6 3 2
Admiral Schofield 6 5 1 0
Joe Ingles 15 3 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Nick Richards CHA
10%
6 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
7 Tre Mann CHA
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Gary Harris ORL
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.1 6.8 6.1
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.5 7.9 3.8
3 Franz Wagner ORL 17.8 5.6 3.7
4 Brandon Miller CHA 17.2 4.8 2.9
5 Vasilije Micic CHA 15.8 3.0 5.4
6 Grant Williams CHA 15.5 5.3 2.9
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.3 3.5 3.7
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.9 7.9 2.2
9 Tre Mann CHA 12.2 4.2 3.7
10 Nick Richards CHA 9.3 8.0 0.9
11 Cole Anthony ORL 9.3 3.9 1.9
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.0 3.9 1.3
13 Gary Harris ORL 8.9 2.4 1.4
14 Davis Bertans CHA 8.4 2.7 1.4
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.7 4.9 0.8
16 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.8 3.8 1.6
17 Anthony Black ORL 5.1 2.5 0.9
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.0 1.5 2.5
19 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.9 1.3 1.2
20 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 3.0 1.8 0.8
21 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.0 1.4 0.5
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.9 2.4 0.8
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.9 1.5 0.7
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.4 1.0 0.5
25 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.4 1.1 0.6
26 JT Thor CHA 1.8 1.2 0.4
27 Amari Bailey CHA 1.1 0.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.