NBA games

ATL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
105–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28312719105
LAL38353825136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home LAL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 32 25 9 4
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 26 17 3 0
Dejounte Murray S 31 13 5 10
Vit Krejci S 25 11 1 1
Onyeka Okongwu 19 11 4 2
Clint Capela S 20 10 9 0
De'Andre Hunter 26 8 1 3
Bruno Fernando 9 5 6 2
Wesley Matthews 11 3 0 3
Trent Forrest 22 2 4 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 30 27 4 10
LeBron James S 29 25 7 10
Anthony Davis S 31 22 15 6
Rui Hachimura S 26 17 3 1
Austin Reaves S 28 12 6 4
Max Christie 22 11 3 1
Taurean Prince 20 8 5 1
Jaxson Hayes 17 7 3 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 21 3 1 3
Skylar Mays 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 2-foot dunk (Dejounte Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
12%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
3 Trae Young ATL
9%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
6 Dejounte Murray ATL
9%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
9 Clint Capela ATL
8%
10 Austin Reaves LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
17%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.3 6.7 9.4
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.9 4.5 8.6
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.1 12.5 3.4
4 Trae Young ATL 21.7 2.6 11.6
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.5 3.8 6.3
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.0 8.7 4.3
7 Austin Reaves LAL 18.9 4.6 6.0
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.3 3.3 1.9
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.0 4.1 4.7
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.5 3.8 1.6
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.8 7.8 1.6
12 Clint Capela ATL 12.7 10.9 2.0
13 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.8 6.6 1.3
14 Taurean Prince LAL 6.3 2.7 1.3
15 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 6.3 1.9 2.0
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.5 2.3 0.9
17 Vit Krejci ATL 5.0 1.7 1.7
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.8 3.8 0.7
19 Wesley Matthews ATL 4.2 1.8 0.8
20 Max Christie LAL 3.7 1.5 1.0
21 Trent Forrest ATL 3.3 1.6 2.0
22 Harry Giles III LAL 2.0 1.1 0.4
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.5 0.5 0.3
24 Skylar Mays LAL 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.