NBA games

MEM @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
111–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MEM321529296111
SAC2829272116121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SAC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 39 25 2 4
Desmond Bane S 37 24 5 4
GG Jackson S 44 22 7 0
Santi Aldama S 39 14 9 2
Jake LaRavia 41 12 8 5
DeJon Jarreau 17 8 3 2
John Konchar S 35 6 10 3
Trey Jemison III 13 0 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 39 28 6 6
Domantas Sabonis S 40 25 18 5
De'Aaron Fox S 43 23 7 10
Keegan Murray S 42 15 10 3
Harrison Barnes S 24 11 5 0
Chris Duarte 18 8 2 1
Alex Len 13 6 3 1
Keon Ellis 34 5 7 3
Kevin Huerter S 2 0 1 1
Davion Mitchell 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 1-foot layup (Kevin Huerter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
6 GG Jackson MEM
7%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
8 Trey Jemison III MEM
7%
9 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
22%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.7 5.3 6.9
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.2 6.1 3.4
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.1 4.6 6.1
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.0 14.3 8.1
5 Malik Monk SAC 19.4 4.1 6.2
6 GG Jackson MEM 15.9 3.9 1.7
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.9 5.5 1.8
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 13.3 5.6 5.8
9 Luke Kennard MEM 12.8 2.7 4.2
10 Santi Aldama MEM 12.6 5.7 2.5
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.5 2.8 1.7
12 Jake LaRavia MEM 12.3 4.6 1.9
13 Lamar Stevens MEM 9.9 4.4 0.9
14 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.7 3.5 1.8
15 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.1 2.9 2.5
16 John Konchar MEM 7.8 4.8 2.6
17 Trey Jemison III MEM 7.4 4.6 1.0
18 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.6 1.6 1.7
19 DeJon Jarreau MEM 6.1 5.1 3.5
20 Keon Ellis SAC 5.3 2.3 1.3
21 Chris Duarte SAC 4.3 2.1 0.5
22 Wenyen Gabriel MEM 4.0 3.5 0.8
23 Alex Len SAC 3.4 2.5 0.7
24 Matt Hurt MEM 3.1 1.5 0.5
25 JaVale McGee SAC 3.0 2.4 0.4
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.6 1.2 0.7
27 Colby Jones SAC 1.5 1.0 0.7
28 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.4 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.