NBA games

NY @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
119–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY30323720119
GS22343224112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home GS
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 34 5 7
Miles McBride S 47 29 1 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 18 4 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 13 10 4
Josh Hart S 48 10 11 11
Precious Achiuwa 18 6 9 1
Alec Burks 14 5 1 1
Bojan Bogdanovic 17 4 2 2
Jericho Sims 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 27 5 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis 26 19 9 2
Klay Thompson 31 18 2 8
Jonathan Kuminga S 26 16 1 1
Chris Paul 20 14 4 4
Andrew Wiggins S 24 7 8 0
Gary Payton II 17 6 0 1
Moses Moody 8 3 0 1
Draymond Green S 31 2 8 5
Brandin Podziemski S 25 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donte DiVincenzo NY
28%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
14%
3 Stephen Curry GS
14%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
6 Josh Hart NY
8%
7 Draymond Green GS
6%
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
6%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
5%
10 Bojan Bogdanovic NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
54%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.6 3.6 7.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 21.8 4.4 4.8
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.5 5.3 3.0
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 18.4 4.5 4.1
5 Klay Thompson GS 15.7 3.4 2.2
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.1 4.1 2.0
7 Josh Hart NY 12.4 11.1 7.3
8 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.7 8.0 1.9
9 Chris Paul GS 10.5 4.0 5.6
10 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 10.2 2.8 1.8
11 Miles McBride NY 9.9 2.2 2.6
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.9 5.0 4.2
13 Draymond Green GS 9.1 7.5 5.7
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.3 5.6 1.3
15 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 7.4 7.7 2.9
16 Moses Moody GS 7.4 3.5 0.6
17 Mamadi Diakite NY 7.3 3.1 0.7
18 Alec Burks NY 5.3 1.7 0.9
19 Jericho Sims NY 4.7 5.6 1.0
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.2 2.8 1.1
21 Shake Milton NY 3.4 2.0 0.9
22 Lester Quinones GS 3.3 1.6 0.4
23 Gui Santos GS 2.6 2.0 0.6
24 Dario Saric GS 2.4 1.4 1.3
25 Kevon Looney GS 2.0 2.4 0.7
26 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.