NBA games

MIN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
114–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN25283031114
UTAH37222421104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home UTAH
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 32 7 8
Naz Reid S 17 17 4 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 34 13 4 5
Jordan McLaughlin 22 11 1 0
Kyle Anderson S 33 10 6 5
Jaden McDaniels S 33 9 8 1
Luka Garza 11 8 1 0
Monte Morris 16 8 1 4
Mike Conley S 27 4 1 2
T.J. Warren 9 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 37 24 1 2
Lauri Markkanen S 31 22 12 1
Keyonte George S 30 15 3 8
John Collins S 20 11 6 0
Taylor Hendricks S 28 8 6 1
Kris Dunn S 27 8 3 5
Talen Horton-Tucker 19 7 1 3
Walker Kessler 28 6 14 2
Brice Sensabaugh 15 3 1 3
Kira Lewis Jr. 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Naz Reid · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Naz Reid makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
3 John Collins UTAH
9%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
7%
5 Naz Reid MIN
7%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
7%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
8 Kyle Anderson MIN
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Kris Dunn UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
22%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.1 5.7 4.9
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.1 3.4 6.3
3 Keyonte George UTAH 19.7 3.5 5.4
4 Naz Reid MIN 18.6 6.6 2.6
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.5 6.1 2.6
6 John Collins UTAH 16.1 9.8 1.7
7 Mike Conley MIN 13.7 3.4 5.0
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 12.3 3.1 2.9
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.3 13.1 1.4
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.7 4.4 1.9
11 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.1 6.6 1.1
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.9 4.2 4.9
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.6 3.5 1.7
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.3 8.2 1.2
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.5 2.6 2.5
16 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 6.5 2.4 2.3
17 Monte Morris MIN 6.2 1.8 2.6
18 T.J. Warren MIN 5.3 2.3 1.1
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.5 2.0 2.1
20 Luka Garza MIN 4.1 1.5 0.7
21 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.9 3.1 0.5
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.0 1.6 0.6
23 Leonard Miller MIN 2.9 1.9 0.8
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.8 1.9 0.4
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.7 1.3 0.6
26 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.1 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.